Putin intended to capture Kyiv in three days, but in the fifth year of hostilities, more and more Russian regions are feeling the effects of the war. Discontent, despite tight control, is simmering in Russian society.
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Added to the economic problems and bans were fears of mass mobilization. People are tired and dissatisfied.
At the end of this winter, employees of the Russian presidential administration (AP) began working on an “image of victory” that could be sold to the Russians after signing a peace agreement with Ukraine, analysts at the Dossier Center write.
The presentation, which was reviewed by “Dossier”, states that the continuation of the war in Ukraine may require a revision of “principled positions” – general mobilization and the final transfer of the entire economy to military rails.
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The presentation highlighted the risks of continuing the war: resource depletion, the need to raise taxes, business cuts, threats of drone attacks, strikes deep into the territory, and terrorism, a demographic crisis and the replacement of Russians by migrants, as well as the possibility of the US losing out in the redistricting of the new world order.
One of the points of the presentation reads: “You need to be able to stop in time. Overdoing it is a defeat, continuing the SVO would be a Pyrrhic victory.”
The Putin administration expects the possible signing of agreements between the US and Russia and the US and Ukraine, according to which the territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions will pass to Russia (which Putin demanded), and the division of the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions will be fixed along the front line (Russia currently controls about 75% of the territories of these regions).
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Russian troops will be withdrawn from the Sumy and Kharkiv regions, European sanctions will remain in place, and American sanctions will be lifted.
“Denazification,” the document states, will be only symbolic, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will remain in power, Dossier reports.
Analysts believe that the presentation has nothing to do with the negotiations to end the war. It reflects the expectations of the AP political bloc in the context of planning propaganda campaigns.
The option described in the document generally coincides with Russia's demands in negotiations with Ukraine, where Moscow's key demand was the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the territory of the Donetsk region. Ukraine has repeatedly stated that it is not going to give its land to anyone.
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The option described in the presentation, the AP employees are going to present as a great victory and a personal merit of Putin, “whose goal is the peaceful development of the country, the quality of people's lives, he always talked about it.”
“But in a war of attrition, development takes a back seat,” the presentation says.
The outcome of the war should be perceived by Russians as a victory not over Ukrainian nationalism, but over the “collective West.”
“Putin has outwitted the West. We have thwarted the West's plans to expand and prolong the conflict,” is one of the main theses of the presentation.
The authors of the presentation consider the main achievements to be territorial conquests, natural resources, a land route to Crimea and the coast of the Sea of Azov, where it will be possible to organize new resorts, as well as the acquisition of millions of new Russian-speaking fellow citizens.
Also notable is the fact that Russia has “purged” itself of its betrayed elites.
Russian propagandists plan to insist that within 10-15 years Ukraine will cease to exist, and the European Union will have been dealt a powerful economic blow.
The document emphasizes that neighboring countries have tested Russia for strength, but after victory, all this will be a thing of the past.
As a reminder, Ukraine's Ambassador to the UK Valeriy Zaluzhny stated that it is impossible to determine the exact date of the end of the war. The former commander-in-chief believes that it is important for Ukraine to independently determine the limits of its own resources and form a realistic strategy so that in the future it does not have to pass off a forced result as a victory.