The Slovak government lost Thursday’s no-confidence vote as a majority of the National Council decided to vote against them leading to its collapse and an uncertain way forward.
Out of 150 National Council members, 78 voted against the government. The former coalition party Freedom and Solidarity initiated the vote, which left the coalition at the end of summer after it unsuccessfully demanded Finance Minister Igor Matovič resign.
Thursday saw the last attempts to save the government. Matovič offered to resign in exchange for Freedom and Solidarity withdrawing the motion, even going to the president’s office to deliver the resignation but changing his mind at the last minute.
“He signed his resignation in front of the employees of the presidential office, but changed his mind at the last moment and snatched the signed document from the hands of the head of the presidential office,” the president’s office said in a statement.
Leader of Freedom and Solidarity Richard Sulík said after the vote that he considers this “a fitting conclusion” of this government.
According to analysts, three options are at hand; parties may try to find a new majority, and the president can appoint a caretaker government or call new elections. Analysts and commentators consider the new elections to be the most likely as this is the wish of most parties.
“Possibility there will be a liberal, pro-western and progressive government that will satisfy urban voters after the next elections is close to zero,” said sociologist Michal Vašečka, suggesting Slovakia may even embark on a “Hungarian path.”
When a pro-western coalition swept to power after the 2020 elections, many saw it as starting a new era. Igor Matovič, the undeniable winner of the elections with his Ordinary people party, promised to root out corruption and restore faith in Slovak politics. But even before the elections, Matovič was a controversial figure, seen more as a firebrand campaigner than a statesman.
Matovič’s time as the prime minister was short-lived as he was forced to step down after only one year after single-handedly deciding to buy two million doses of the Sputnik V vaccine from Russia without the coalition’s permission.
Conflicts, however, continued. Freedom and Solidarity blamed Matovič for his chaotic and divisive style of governance and inability to keep his word. Matovič, on the other hand, blamed Sulík for undermining the government. The situation escalated last summer when Freedom and Solidarity demanded Matovič step down.
Matovič is currently the most unpopular politician in the country, even topping the leader of the far-right Our Slovakia People’s Party.
Elections?
Meanwhile, a snap election in the spring or fall of 2023 seems increasingly likely. Current polls suggest a tectonic shift for the highly fragmented party system if these were to happen.
Heger’s centre-right OĽaNO party, a European People’s Party member, would face a devastating result, dropping from 25.0% in the February 2020 election to only about 7.5%. OĽaNO would be replaced as the strongest party by the centre-left HLAS–SD party of former Prime Minister Peter Pellegrini, which would win 20% in its first election. HLAS–SD is an associate member of the Party of European Socialists (PES).
HLAS–SD split in mid-2020 from another PES member, SMER-SD, in opposition to its former leader and Prime Minister Robert Fico, who in 2016 associated refugees and Muslims with terrorism, claiming that “thousands of terrorists and Islamic State fighters are entering Europe with migrants.” Fico’s SMER-SD is now trailing behind HLAS-SD at about 16%, down from 18% in 2020.
The liberal Progressive Slovakia (PS) party, a member of the ALDE Party, has been rising in polls over the past months, reaching 11%. In 2020, the party ran on a shared ticket with the SPOLU party (EPP member), winning 6.97%. Because multiparty alliances have a higher threshold to enter parliament (7%) than single parties (5%), PS and SPOLU did not win any seats in 2020. A 2022 renewal of that alliance is unlikely, as SPOLU is now polling at less than 1%.
SaS, which sits with the ECR Group in the EU Parliament, is polling at 10%.
OĽaNO’s coalition partners have not been able to profit from the party’s collapse. The right-wing Sme Rodina party, which is a member of the ID Party, is polling at about 8%, in line with their 2020 result. The centre-right Za ľudí party, which sits with EPP in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, collapsed from 6% in 2020 to about 2%, well below the 5% threshold to re-enter the parliament. These polling figures mean that, if correct, the current government would have less than 20% support if a snap election were to be held today.
The far-right Neo-Nazi ĽSNS party is also facing parliamentary death, with only 2% in the polls (2020: 8%). However, REPUBLIKA, a far-right split from ĽSNS, would win 6% in its first run.
The centre-right Christian Democrats (KDH) are polling at about 6%, meaning the party would be elected to parliament for the first time since 2012. A set of fragmented centre-right parties, which claim to represent the Hungarian-speaking minority, are polling just below the threshold at around 4%
(Michal Hudec | EURACTIV.sk, Tobias Gerhard Schminke | EuropeElects)
Source: euractiv.com
