US President Donald Trump’s peace plan for Ukraine has not yet been unveiled, but it is already abundantly clear that he expects Europe to play a much larger role in the continent’s future security and the fight against Russian aggression. With the United States now seeking to scale back its transatlantic commitments at a time when an openly revisionist Russia is embracing an expansionist agenda, European leaders must urgently adapt to new geopolitical realities and make security a priority.
The Trump administration quickly moved to emphasize its expectations for a greater European role in the continent’s defense. Just days after his inauguration, Trump used an appearance at the World Economic Forum to reiterate his call for European NATO members to increase defense spending to five percent of GDP.
Then US Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke at length about the return of a multipolar world and how it will shape the future security policy of the United States toward Europe. “I do think that over the long term there needs to be a discussion about whether the United States should be on the front line of securing the continent or as a backstop to securing the continent,” he commented on January 30 in an appearance on The Megyn Kelly Show.
Trump’s national security adviser Mike Walz also said the United States expects Europe to take greater responsibility for preventing further Russian aggression against Ukraine and ensuring a viable peace. “The underlying principle here is that the Europeans have to be responsible for this conflict going forward,” he said on NBC’s Meet the Press. “President Trump will end it. And then, in terms of security guarantees, that will be entirely on the European side.”
The most forceful signal so far came from U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. “Ensuring European security should be an imperative for NATO’s European members,” he said at a meeting of Ukraine’s Western allies in Brussels on Feb. 12. “Europe should provide the overwhelming share of future lethal and non-lethal assistance to Ukraine.”
The new US administration is not the first to signal a strategic shift away from Europe. This process has effectively been underway since the end of the Cold War and remains a long-term goal of policymakers in Washington, D.C., despite Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. While Trump’s messaging on European security has been characteristically forthright, his position is in fact largely consistent with long-standing trends in US foreign policy.
As the new transatlantic security relationship takes shape, European countries will be expected to make a much greater commitment to funding the continent’s security. This will include providing the bulk of military support to Ukraine. The European defence industry is not yet up to the task, with only limited progress in producing critical weapons and equipment in the three years since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Key shortfalls include key items such as air defence systems, precision-guided munitions, multiple launch rocket systems and armoured infantry fighting vehicles.
One practical solution to the current shortfall would be for European countries to purchase more weapons, ammunition, and equipment for the Ukrainian war effort directly from the United States. However, this would spark intense debate across the continent, and advocates of Europe’s long-term economic and defense interests would likely face opposition from those who prioritize the more immediate need to support Ukraine.
Buying more American weapons would certainly help strengthen transatlantic security ties. It would provide a strong incentive for the United States to maintain high levels of defense engagement with its European partners. In fact, European countries are already buying more from the United States. Increased European spending was a key factor in the record $318.7 billion in U.S. arms sales in 2024, as countries sought to replenish stockpiles sent to Ukraine and prepare for possible further international instability.
The shift in rhetoric emanating from European capitals in recent months suggests that Europe’s leaders are acutely aware of the new security realities and the need to devote significantly more resources to the arms task. However, the growing talk of greater autonomy for the European defence sector has not yet been matched by increases in military spending and arms production. Indeed, a new report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies shows that Russian military spending is now higher than that of all European countries combined, when calculated on a purchasing power parity basis.
As the transatlantic security relationship evolves in the coming months, Europe will face increasing pressure to secure the continent’s fragile security in a far more assertive manner. The EU is already preparing plans to encourage increased defense spending among member states as officials in Brussels adjust to changing geopolitical realities. But the real test of Europe’s resolve to defend itself will be Ukraine. U.S. officials are now making it clear that Russia’s invasion is first and foremost a matter of European security. Europe’s response will reveal much about the continent’s future role in an increasingly multipolar world.
Nikolai Beleskov is a research fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies and a senior analyst at the Ukrainian public organization “Come Back Alive.” The opinions expressed in this article are the personal position of the author and do not reflect the opinions or views of NISS or “Come Back Alive.”
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