Russia’s seizure of Crimea in 2014 was a watershed moment in modern European history. The Kremlin’s subsequent full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 brought the world to the brink of World War III. With talks on a possible peace deal reportedly set to begin in earnest, we are approaching a critical juncture that will shape the future of international relations for decades to come.
In retrospect, it is now clear that the threat posed by Russian aggression in Ukraine could have been eliminated almost immediately. As soon as Russian President Vladimir Putin announced the illegal annexation of Crimea in early 2014, Ukraine could have declared war and ordered its military to defend the peninsula. Putting NATO forces on alert would have further cooled the heads of the more hawkish Russian officials in the Kremlin.
This did not happen. Instead, the international community stood by and watched the Russian invasion unfold, while Ukraine’s Western partners advocated passivity and warned Kyiv against any actions that might provoke Putin. Thus, the opportunity to end the Russian invasion in its early stages was missed, opening the way for a series of further escalations by the Kremlin that eventually led to the full-scale invasion of 2022.
Over the past eleven years, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has done serious damage to the foundations of the international security system. It has undermined the inviolability of international borders that was first established after World War II. The Russian invasion has also seriously discredited the cause of nuclear disarmament, as Ukraine’s decision in 1994 to give up its vast nuclear arsenal is now widely recognized as one of the most costly mistakes in modern history.
Given the global implications of any negotiated settlement to Russia’s war in Ukraine, it is vital that the entire peace process focus on Russia’s existing international commitments. These include the 1994 Budapest Memorandum and Moscow’s recognition of Ukraine’s 1991 borders. After all, what is the point of signing any new treaties with Russia if Moscow refuses to recognize or adhere to the terms of the numerous agreements and documents it has previously signed?
At stake is the credibility of the entire system of treaties governing international relations, such as the 1969 Vienna Convention. Known as the “treaty of treaties,” the Vienna Convention sets clear guidelines for how international treaties should be drafted, defined, amended, and interpreted. Russia’s invasion poses an equally serious threat to the 1975 Helsinki Accords, which reaffirmed the principle of territorial integrity.
It is also important that the peace process specifically address nonproliferation. By giving up the world’s third-largest nuclear arsenal in the 1990s, Ukraine provided an unprecedented service to global security. Over the past three decades, Ukraine’s unilateral move to support nonproliferation has resulted in trillions of dollars in savings for countries around the world.
Unfortunately, however, the security commitments Ukraine thought it had received in the Budapest Memorandum proved futile. Instead, Russia launched the largest invasion of Europe since World War II, bringing untold death and destruction to Ukraine.
To add insult to injury, the Kremlin used nuclear blackmail against non-nuclear Ukraine as a tool to secure the invasion and deter the West from providing Kyiv with desperately needed military aid. Understandably, many in Ukraine now believe they have every right to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty if the country cannot obtain genuine security guarantees.
A bad peace agreement would compound the damage that Russia’s invasion has already done to the current international security architecture. It would legitimize international aggression and set a dangerous precedent that could have disastrous consequences for global stability. To avoid this, Western leaders should return to Russia’s existing international treaty obligations regarding the inviolability of borders and the use of force.
It is important that Ukraine also receives credible long-term security guarantees that can prevent a repeat of the current Russian invasion in the coming years. Failure to do so will set the stage for a new era of geopolitical lawlessness that will be felt far beyond Ukraine’s violated borders.
Igor Smeshko is a Ukrainian politician, former head of the Intelligence and Security Service of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
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