French Prime Minister Michel Barnier succeeded in forming a government after long negotiations, but its days are already numbered as all French political parties are preparing for new elections.
Smiles were appropriate during the first Cabinet meeting at the Élysée Palace on Monday, 23 September, but Barnier’s government carries a burden that it will find impossible to shake off.
For the first time since World War II, the far-right holds the fate of the French executive in its hands.
The 143 deputies from the National Rally (RN) and their allies could vote a motion of no confidence against the government during the Prime Minister’s general policy speech in front of the National Assembly on 1 October. This motion will mathematically pass if supported by the representatives of the left-wing coalition, the New Popular Front (NFP).
“We are the ones who will decide if this government has a future,” said RN deputy Jean-Philippe Tanguy, a member of the party’s national office, on France Inter on 23 September.
There is no need, however, to worry just yet; Marine Le Pen and her troops have no immediate interest in playing the executioner. According to the constitution, new early legislative elections cannot be held before July 2025.
They just need to wait and sharpen their weapons.
“The RN doesn’t need to press the nuclear button,” an NFP deputy told me last week. “The far-right is advancing its priorities in the public debate, such as the fight against immigration, and is influencing government policy, all while relentlessly criticising the executive.”
They just need to wait for the right moment.
No one is under any illusions: The election campaign will continue until summer. The instructions circulating in the political parties’ WhatsApp groups are clear—return to the field, walk the markets, and once again try to convince.
But is another surge of the far-right next summer inevitable? Maybe not.
Starting on 30 September, Marine Le Pen and several RN officials must answer charges of “embezzlement of public funds” in front of the Paris court, in the case of allegedly fictitious parliamentary assistants in the European Parliament.
Marine Le Pen faces up to ten years in prison, a €1 million fine, and a potential five-year ineligibility penalty, which could seriously cool her ambition to run for the Élysée a fourth time.
Some also speculate about other possibilities, such as Macron’s surprise resignation if Barnier’s government falls sooner than expected and political instability paralyses the country.
“Of course, this is political fiction,” continues the NFP deputy. “But I wonder about [former prime minister] Édouard Philippe’s decision to announce his candidacy for the presidential race on 3 September. Maybe he sensed the tide turning.”
Macron has consistently stated that he has no intention of resigning. One might be tempted to believe him, but one should also consider that surprises cannot be ruled out.
The Roundup
France says it is willing to reopen EU negotiations on the Migration Pact and test the limits of the Schengen agreements, new Home Affairs Minister Bruno Retailleau announced, following in the footsteps of an increasing number of member states.
EU ministers criticised an underemphasis on Ukraine in Hungary’s agenda for its presidency of the bloc, at a meeting in Brussels on Tuesday (24th September).
The European Commission approved the acquisition of Amsterdam-based PPF Telecom by United Arab Emirates firm e&, subject to conditions, according to a Tuesday (24 September) press release.
The UK wants to host Europe’s captured CO2 in its new storage infrastructure, but post-Brexit regulatory challenges complicate the collaboration with the EU.
The return of veteran Agnès Pannier-Runacher as the new French minister for ecology and energy gives the nuclear industry a champion in Brussels, but domestic political instability may limit her negotiating power with the EU.
Ukraine’s Western partners need to step up in providing air defences for Kyiv’s war effort, as Russia is likely to try to knock out the country’s energy infrastructure before winter, EU chief diplomat Josep Borrell said on Monday (23 September).
As relations between the EU and Tehran hit a historic low, European officials met with their Iranian counterparts this week in New York on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.
Source: euractiv.com
