Party of EU Parliament Vice President Michal Šimečka narrowly missed the quorum last time and is now polling second ahead of the September snap elections, but has an unclear path to government, which also goes for the competing camp.
In 2020, the election coalition of Progressive Slovakia and Spolu received 6.94% of the votes, missing out on the higher 7% quorum for coalitions by a couple of hundred ballots. A June Ipsos for Denník N poll has them in second place with 15.5%, putting it among the frontrunners once again.
“We know that polls are tricky, and it really comes down to the decision at the polling station,” party chairman Michal Šimečka commented, alluding to polls which promised the party twice more votes than it ended up getting only months before the 2020 election.
Leading the polls is Smer, which was once able to form a one-party government, but was defeated after mass protests connected to the murder of journalist Ján Kuciak and a slurry of corruption allegations.
Smer has risen in polls once again, criticising the new government’s chaotic management of various crises, culminating in a 2022 vote of no confidence and the onset of a caretaker government.
An S&D-aligned party, Smer has nevertheless moved further to the right, promising to stop delivering arms to Ukraine and alluding to cooperation with far-right Republika. A Smer-led Slovakia could be an ally to Hungary in its fight against Russian sanctions and aid to Ukraine.
The fate of Slovakia’s foreign orientation might be up to Smer defector Peter Pellegrini and his Hlas party, which was leading the polls last year. Hlas has been reluctant to position itself clearly, but recently said it would not join a Smer and Republika coalition. Without the far-right’s 8.3%, Smer would not have enough partners for a parliamentary majority, as most others ruled out cooperation.
The coalition potential of pro-western parties is also complicated, with many parties refusing cooperation due to past conflicts and controversies. Progressive Slovakia has yet to answer whether it would cooperate with Hlas due to its past connection with Smer.
Conservative KDH, with 5.6%, said it would not join Progressive Slovakia if it moved towards legal recognition of same-sex relationships. Many parties are also unwilling to join the 6.4% OĽaNO party of Igor Matovič, leading to the chaotic pandemic.
At this point, there is no clear path to the government for either party, which could put Slovakia in a Bulgaria-style cycle of snap elections.
(Barbara Zmušková | EURACTIV.sk)
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