Making hay from a scandal

Dear readers,

Welcome to EU Politics Decoded where Benjamin Fox and Eleonora Vasques bring you a round-up of the latest political news in Europe and beyond every Thursday.

In this edition, we look at the European People’s Party’s questionable tactics in seeking to make political capital out of the Qatargate scandal.

Editor’s Take: Making hay from a scandal

The 2024 European electoral campaign is looming, and it seems the Qatar gate scandal is only accelerating its approach.

The first sign is the brazen attempt by the European People’s Party (EPP) to use the corruption scandal to damage the socialists, whose popularity was already declining in Europe in the last years, as EURACTIV wrote last October.

“This is not just a #Qatargate, this is an S&D scandal,” stated the EPP’s Twitter account on 15 December, several days after European Parliament President Roberta Metsola asked EU lawmakers not to exploit the crisis for electoral purposes.

As tactics go, this does not look very smart. In trying to play politics with Qatargate, the EPP are leaving themselves wide open as hostages to fortune. So far, most of the central figures involved in the scandal are from the centre-left. However, a number of politicians are also under investigation – not just those from the Socialists and Democrats (S&D).

The sad truth, moreover, is that the brush of Qatargate has tarred the entire institution, regardless of political affiliation.

It’s the first sign that the EPP is seeking to put clear blue water between themselves and the S&D, with whom they currently form a majority in the Parliament.

In the meantime, the EU’s general electoral arithmetic is progressively shifting towards the right, with the centre-right governing with the far-right in some cases.

That is certainly the case in Italy and Sweden, where EPP-affiliated parties are governing with – or with the support of – Brothers of Italy and the Sweden Democrats.

That appears to be pushing the EPP closer to the more nationalist European Conservative and Reformist group (ECR).

The conservative ECR has also used Russia’s war against Ukraine to assert its position alongside the more traditional EU establishment parties being within the NATO umbrella and against Putinism.

These points, together with their natural alignment on some key dossiers, such as those on energy and migration policy, are gently pushing the centre-right to be more aligned with the conservatives. However, divisions remain on employment and social policy.

This does not mean that the two groups will be allied or they will mix into one. But a conservative axis based around the EPP and ECR in the next European Parliament is certainly possible.

Who’s electioneering?

It’s all quiet for politicians – or at least it should be – for the Christmas break. Presidential elections in the Czech Republic and Cyprus will kick off 2023 at the polls, with general elections in Finland, Greece and Spain later in the year.

Capitals-in-brief

Czech Deputy Foreign Minister Jaroslav Kurfürst, who told EURACTIV that Russia is increasingly isolating itself on the international scene, to some degree even from China and India.

Portugal stands with Romania on Schengen. Portugal strongly backs Romania’s entry into the visa-free Schengen Area, President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa told a joint press conference with his Romanian counterpart, President Klaus Iohannis, on Tuesday.

Our Alice Taylor interviewed ex-Albanian PM Sali Berisha, who told EURACTIV that Turkey was never interested in the maritime border agreement between Albania and Greece and made a “really strong intervention” when it was signed.

Accentuate the positive. Nobody can say that only negative things come from Brexit, at least for fishers. UK ministers have proclaimed that the latest fishing quota agreement with the EU will allow British fishers to catch 30,000 more tonnes of fish in 2023 than would have been possible before Brexit.

Unsettled status. The UK government’s Settlement Scheme has been declared unlawful in a major High Court ruling on Wednesday (21 December). The judgement means that some 2.5 million EU nationals currently living in the UK with ‘pre-settled status’ will be entitled to permanent residency status, though the government has indicated that it will appeal.

Inside the institutions

Frontex has a new director. A new path started? The Dutch General Hans Leijtens is the new executive director of the EU border and coast guard agency Frontex. His predecessor, the director ad interim Aija Kalnaja is currently under investigation. It is likely that such news that went to the public last 16 December, prevented Kalnaja from being reconfirmed.

More money, flexibility needed to back EU’s new nature restoration law, ministers say. EU environment ministers on Tuesday (20 December) called for increased flexibility and finance to achieve the goals of a new law aimed at restoring Europe’s nature.

Qatar gate expanding: Visentini and Avramopouolos admit payments from NGO in Qatargate probe. An international labour leader and a former EU commissioner have admitted that they had received respectively €50,000 euros and €60,000 from an NGO at the heart of an investigation into allegations Qatari officials paid bribes to influence the EU institutions.

Lawmakers agree on EU carbon tax. EU legislators have agreed to introduce a carbon price on buildings and road transport fuels, with a new €87 billion social climate fund also set up to cushion the impact on households and help them invest in green solutions.

What we are reading

What Elon Musk failed to understand about Twitter, writes Molly Roberts for the Washington Post
Qatargate could negatively impact global energy security, says Qatari diplomat, writes Thomas Moller-Nielsen for the Brussels Times
The Guardian view on Britain’s missing workers: they may never come back, writes the editorial team.

Thanks for reading. This was the last newsletter of 2022. We come back at the beginning of January. We hope we kept you entertained with our analysis and we look forward to giving food for thought next year. Happy holidays to all.