Little glamour but lawmaking power

Dear readers,

Welcome to EU Politics Decoded where Benjamin Fox and Eleonora Vasques will bring you a round-up of the latest political news in Europe and beyond every Thursday. In this edition, with the EU elections a year away, we look at the contradictions of a Parliament that rarely makes or breaks a government but punches its way as a lawmaker.

Editor’s Take: Little glamour but lawmaking power

This time next year, the EU election results will be in and over 700 MEPs will have been elected. For the ‘bubble’ around the EU institutions, the next 12 to 15 months are the most important in the political cycle.

Yet it is understandable why so many outside Brussels struggle to be enthused about the European Parliament elections. Despite the efforts of federalists to ‘Europeanise’ the polls via the Spitzenkandidat process or, even less successfully thus far, trans-national lists, the Parliament elections are not directly linked to the election of a government or policy platform.

This arrangement is a political decision but it does not encourage voter engagement.

Margrethe Vestager, one of the most impressive politicians from the European liberals, reckons that politicians shouldn’t run for a job in the Parliament if they really want to be a Commissioner.

The EU’s top executive jobs are not decided at the ballot box but by governments in the weeks after the polls. Recent history suggests that at least one of the Commission nominees will ultimately be rejected by MEPs, who have veto power, but the prospects of the Parliament wholly blocking the next EU executive are very slim.

In truth, the basic composition of the Parliament has changed very little over the last 20 years. Instead, every five years we tend to see what political analysts like to call ‘trendless fluctuations’.

Since the creation of the European Conservative and Reformists (ECR) group after the 2009 polls, the European Peoples’ Party (EPP) has tended to form majorities with the Socialist and Liberal groups on major institutional questions, and with the ECR and Liberals on issues like financial regulation, though the composition of majorities tends to vary between files and committees.

Throughout that time the EPP has been the largest party and polling data compiled by Europe Elects suggests that the centre-right group will, albeit narrowly, retain this status from the Socialists.

Elsewhere, the numbers of far-right and nationalist MEPs have increased, but they still total fewer than 100 in a chamber of over 700 MEPs and have never come close to forming a cohesive block. Europe Elects reckons that this will not change after next June.

The Parliament tends to have a far higher rate of turnover than most national institutions. Around 60% of the current assembly are first-term deputies and, for various reasons, it is a safe bet that half of them won’t be re-elected. One consequence is that much of the Parliament’s institutional memory lies in its civil service, particularly the senior staff working on its legislative committees.

So what is new? Earlier this week, EURACTIV broke the story that the Parliament is considering a radical overhaul of its committee structure, with fewer permanent standing committees and more ad hoc ‘bill committees’, making the Parliament more like the US Congress and – ironically given Brexit – the UK’s Westminster model. That could end up concentrating more power in the hands of a handful of senior MEPs, a move that would probably strengthen the Parliament’s negotiating stance on new EU laws.

The European Parliament has its critics and too many of its members are overpaid and underworked – like many a national assembly. But a significant minority of its members are genuinely influential lawmakers. The concrete and glass towers in Brussels are hardly glamorous but what happens inside them matters.

Politics in The Spotlight

The next EU elections will take place in exactly one year. You can watch our video explainer about the 2024 turnout here.

EURACTIV asked the presidents of the European Parliament’s political groups what they think the EU electoral campaign will look like. We publish a new video interview each Monday, you can find the special report page here.

This week we spoke with Identity and Democracy President Marco Zanni, who told EURACTIV that the EU Green Deal is a ‘total failure’ and that the group opposes the spitzenkandidaten process.

Capitals-in-brief

France wants European defence industry covered by EU Sovereignty Fund. With France’s backing, the EU defence industry is pushing to be included within the scope of a future European Sovereignty Fund but faces opposition from the European Commission.

US senator blocks arms sales to Hungary over blocking Sweden’s NATO bid. The top Republican on the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee said on Wednesday (14 June) he was blocking a $735 million arms sale to Hungary because its government has refused to approve Sweden’s bid to join NATO.

Estonia set to become first ex-Soviet state to back gay marriage. Estonia’s liberal coalition government is only two months old and has moved swiftly on a draft bill legalizing same-sex marriage, among other measures, to distance itself from neighbouring Russia.

Hundreds feared dead in migrant shipwreck off Greece. The bodies of at least 79 migrants who drowned early on Wednesday (14 June) were recovered, while hundreds more are missing and feared dead after their boat capsized and sank in open seas off Greece, in one of Europe’s deadliest shipping disasters in recent years.

Germany unveils first national security strategy, brands Russia ‘greatest threat’. Germany’s first-ever national security strategy presented on Wednesday (14 June) described Russia as the biggest threat to Europe’s security but provided few concrete steps on how to deal with emerging challenges and remained non-committal on European defence projects.

Inside the institutions

LEAK: MEPs working on major overhaul of lawmaking committees. The European Parliament is working on a major overhaul of its powerful lawmaking committees, according to an internal Parliament document seen by EURACTIV.

The three proposals on the table focused on reforming the Parliament’s 20 legislative committees – and 3 sub committees – “aim at a simplification of procedures, a reduction of conflicts of competences and ensuring a consistent European Parliament position in interinstitutional negotiations,” the document states.

AI Act enters final phase of EU legislative process. The European Parliament adopted its position on the AI rulebook with an overwhelming majority on Wednesday (14 June), paving the way for interinstitutional negotiations to finalise the world’s first comprehensive law on Artificial Intelligence.

LEAK: Commission wants digital euro accessible to everyone. The European Commission wants to implement a digital euro that is accessible to all retail users for free, in an effort to strengthen financial inclusion and competition in digital payments, according to a leaked draft proposal seen by EURACTIV.

€100 million for Tunisian border management, Commission states. The European Commission will invest €100 million in anti-smuggling activities, border management, search and rescue operation, and migrant returns to Tunisia as part of a €1 billion investment plan in the North African country.

What we are reading

EU political ads rules could be ‘hotbed for retaliatory flagging’, Ruth Anderson writes for EU Observer.

Suspending Hungary’s EU presidency isn’t a sanction — it’s a precaution, Alberto Alemanno argues in Politico.

Brexit was Johnson and Johnson was Brexit. Now that he has gone, Britain must think again, writes Martin Kettle for The Guardian.

The next week in politics

Energy Council next Monday (19 June), Environment Council on Tuesday (20 June), and informal meeting of General Affairs Council on Wednesday and Thursday (21-22 June).

MEPs will be busy with activities outside the European Parliament, the so-called ‘Green Week’.

Thanks for reading. If you’d like to contact us for leaks, tips or comments, drop us a line at [email protected] / [email protected] or contact us on Twitter: @EleonorasVasques & @benfox83

[Edited by Nathalie Weatherald]