It is easier to imagine the end of the world than EU reform

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Welcome to EU Politics Decoded where Benjamin Fox and Eleonora Vasques will bring you a round-up of the latest political news in Europe and beyond every Thursday. In this edition, we look at how EU reform has been stifled by the ‘muddle through’ mentality of the bloc’s leading officials.

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Editor’s Take: It is easier to imagine the end of the world than EU reform

“It is never going to happen” is the typical answer that many officials of EU institutions informally give, particularly from the European Commission, if asked about any potential change in the functioning and powers of the Union.

It happened with the call for a convention to reform EU treaties after the conference on the future of Europe, and it is happening now with the debate on whether to suspend the Hungarian rotating presidency of the EU Council.

It has also occurred repeatedly with attempts to reform the EU’s electoral law.

It is hard to think that EU reform is being stalled because of a general attitude among EU officials that is similar to what the British critic Mark Fisher said about capitalism: “It is easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism.”

It is a pattern of a specific kind of realism, where there is no possibility for a change because the objective conditions are not favourable and the imaginary of the future is an empty glass. The goal is ‘surviving’ the day, saving face, and muddling through.

This attitude is good for crisis management but the byproduct is a static EU that lacks ambition and is poorly prepared for the next major challenge.

The COVID-19 pandemic shook the EU into action and the €750 billion recovery plan, most of it funded by market borrowing by the European Commission, was the product. Before the pandemic, such a fund would have been considered a utopian fantasy.

The war in Ukraine underlined the importance of political unity among the EU27. But it has not led to a unified foreign policy or the ending of national vetoes on the matter.

There is another kind of realism, said Italian politician Altiero Spinelli, one that analyses the actual conditions to see whether there is a factual space for a change.

This kind of attitude is rarely found among EU officials though It is part of the DNA of NGOs, organisations, academia and other entities that drive EU reform.

Politics in The Spotlight

The next EU elections will take place in exactly one year. You can watch our video explainer about the 2024 turnout here.

EURACTIV asked the presidents of the European Parliament’s political groups what they think the EU electoral campaign will look like. We will publish a new video interview each Monday, and you can find the special report page here.

This week we spoke with Renew Europe President Stéphane Séjourné, who told EURACTIV that EU reindustrialisation and green jobs are among the top priorities for his liberal group.

Capitals-in-brief

The quiet man finds his voice. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been on a communications offensive this week, defending his approach to European affairs in a series of press appearances, following criticism over his leadership style.

Foreign investment trumps EU cash. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) can replace EU funds, Hungary’s Economic Development Minister Márton Nagy said on Tuesday (6 June) as the government looks for alternatives to EU funding that has been frozen because of rule of law disputes.

New EU case against Warsaw over ‘Russian influence’. The European Commission launched on Wednesday (7 June) a legal case against the Polish government over its creation of a controversial committee designed to investigate so-called ‘Russian influence’, a move that critics say will target opposition lawmakers.

New polls if no party wins a majority, says Greek PM. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis has warned that the country will hold a third round of elections if an absolute majority to form a single-party government is not reached in the second round on 25 June. Mitsotakis’ New Democracy party (EPP) comfortably topped the poll in the first electoral round on 21 May.

Migration tops Italy/Libya talks. Migration, energy and trade were on the agenda at a meeting between Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and the leader of Libya’s national unity government, Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh, in Rome on Wednesday (7 June).

Inside the institutions

More EU election interest. Voter turnout is set to increase at next year’s European elections according to a pan-Eurobarometer poll published on Tuesday (6 June), with 67% saying they would be likely to vote if the elections were held next week, compared to 58% in April 2018.

MEPs call in the observers. The European Parliament’s political leaders have united in demanding a full-scale election observation mission by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe ahead of Poland’s crucial general election later this year, amid ongoing protests against the Law and Justice government and demands for stronger democracy.

Ministers close on asylum deal. EU Migration Commissioner Ylva Johansson has promised that the bloc’s home affairs ministers are on the brink of agreeing to an overhaul of EU immigration and asylum rules after years of bitter disputes on the issue.

Commission tables €189.3 billion budget. The European Commission tabled on Wednesday (7 June) a budget worth €189.3 billion for 2024, including almost €4 billion to repay borrowing from the Next Generation EU pandemic funds in 2020.

New raids in Qatargate saga. The Belgian Federal Prosecutor’s Office raided several offices in the European Parliament, including that of Belgian deputy Marc Tarabella in the latest saga in the Qatargate corruption scandal.

What we are reading

Emmanuel Macron is trying a new, more conciliatory approach as he seeks to boost French leadership in Europe, writes Lionel Laurent for Bloomberg.

Six years after the Brexit referendum, the UK still behaves like it was an EU member, argues Phillip Cunliffe in Unherd.

Hungarian government spokesman Zoltan Kovacs writes that any talk of stripping his country of the EU’s rotating presidency in 2024 is just wishful thinking in EU Observer.

The next week in politics

MEPs gather in Strasbourg on Monday for the June plenary session, with debates on the Artificial Intelligence Act and the use of Pegasus and other surveillance software among the main events.

In the Council, meanwhile, a three day meeting of agriculture and fisheries ministers starting on Monday (11 June) will be followed by gatherings of eurozone and EU finance ministers on Thursday and Friday.

Thanks for reading. If you’d like to contact us for leaks, tips or comments, drop us a line at [email protected] / [email protected] or contact us on Twitter: @EleonorasVasques & @benfox83

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic]