Erdogan faces second-round runoff against centre-left contender

Turkey’s race for the president will be only decided in a second run, as neither Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan nor his centre-left contender Kemal Kilicdaroglu managed to secure a majority of the votes.

It is the tightest race in Turkey’s history since Erdogan first took power over two decades ago. While Erdogan scored first place with 49.39%, he fell short of reaching the required majority to secure a win in the first round. On the other hand, the candidate from the centre-left CHP, Kilicdaroglu managed to sway 44.92 with 91.93% of votes counted.

“Although the results are not clear yet, we are in the lead by a long way,” Erdogan told supporters in Ankara early Monday.

Erdogan has lost favour with many voters over Turkey’s sluggish economic performance, skyrocketing inflation, and the mishandling of a massive earthquake in the south-east that cost over 50.000 lives.

His contender, Kilicdaroglu on the other, had pledged to end Turkey’s descent into authoritarianism and aims to reinstate the independence of the judiciary, the central bank, and the media. The candidate of the centre-left CHP managed to get the backing of both the nationalist IYI party as well as the Green-leftist YSP.

“If our nation says second round, we will win the second round,” he told reporters on Monday morning.

“This will for change in society is higher than 50%,” Kilicdaroglu added.

The nationalist kingmaker

In the second round, the voters of the third candidate, Sinan Ogan, who surprisingly scored 5.3% , will decide who will lead Turkey in the future. Ogan has presented himself as the nationalist alternative to the two blocks.

Ogan was originally part of the nationalist MHP currently in a coalition with Erdogan’s AKP. However, he heavily opposed the MHP’s political backing of Erdogan in 2015 and finally left his party in 2017 after the MHP supported the referendum to change the political system to a presidential republic.

The current nationalist camp is heavily divided. While the MHP backs Erdogan, the IYI Party founded in 2017 by the prominent nationalist Meral Aksener, is the second most potent force in Kilicdaroglu’s coalition.

Another nationalist figure supporting the opposition is the mayor of Ankara, Mansur Yavas, who started his political career with the MHP but switched to Kilicdaroglu CHP in 2013.

While Erdogan has less ground to gain than his centre-left rival, these prominent nationalist figures could tip the balance and attract nationalist voters to vote for Kilicdaroglu.

“I see Ogan’s voters as having more options with the opposition, which can present popular nationalists like Aksener and Yavas,” Nate Schenkkan, Senior Director of Research for Freedom House, told EURACTIV.

“But it is not automatic. There will be heavy jockeying for those votes if there is a second round,” he added.

Fair and equal?

Concerns that the elections could be unfair and unequal have surfaced before the elections, with experts arguing that the elections process is skewed towards the government.

These concerns primarily manifested in how votes were counted and numerous appeals for recounts by the government to delay the process.

Opposition leader Kilicdaroglu has voiced concern about the pace of the vote count, as repeated objections were blocking some counts. “Do not block the will of this nation. I call out to our democracy workers on the field. Never leave the ballot boxes and election boards. We are here until every single vote is counted,” the opposition leader tweeted.

The state-owned Anadolu news agency was also heavily criticised for skewing the counting in favour of Erdogan. At an early stage of the vote count, Anadolu news agency had reported a lead of Erdogan by 25%. The centre-left CHP was quick to put the authenticity of the results into question.

According to Schenkkan from Freedom House, this is used to set the narrative and demoralise the opposition.

“All of this has raised concern about ballot security and about the quality of the count. But the opposition has shown it is well-prepared for this strategy,” he told EURACTIV.

“They have observers around the country, and their messaging has been consistent and timely to prevent the government from controlling the narrative,” he explained.

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(Oliver Noyan | EURACTIV.com)