Latest polls ahead of the Dutch parliamentary election on Wednesday suggest a close tie between the possible right-wing and centre governing coalitions, both of which are likely to have a harsher stance on the EU than the previous executive due to newcomer centre-right NSC (EPP) and the skyrocketing far-right PVV (ID).
A right-wing coalition would include former Rutte’s liberal party VVD (Renew) with 18% of votes and the newcomer party NSC (EPP) with 13%, but they would need other minor parties such as the Christian-democrats CDA (EPP), farmer party BBB, the Christian fundamentalist SGP (ECR), or far-right JA21 (ECR).
A natural ally would be far-right PVV, which is projected to be one of the winners of the election with a 16%.
While no door is completely shut and VVD has shown its openness to collaborate, NSC leader Peter Omzigt said he would have “great difficulty” forming a government with PVV due to the far-right party’s threats to the country’s rule of law.
Additionally, PVV has shown a constructive side during the election campaign while its leader, Geert Wilders, has expressed that the party “very much” wants to join the government and is ready to make concessions.
The other possibility lies in a centre coalition with NSC, VVD, and the green and socialist coalition PvdA/GL – led by former EU commissioner Frans Timmermans – which is projected to score 17% votes. This coalition may need smaller parties, such as liberal pro-EU D66.
However, PvdA/GL’s wide gaps in green and migration policy with NSC and VVD mean tough coalition talks – and tougher governing thereafter.
With such a tight tie between the two blocs, results are highly unpredictable and will change until the last minute as people will cast a “strategic vote” from smaller parties to the big four, said Europe Elects’ Dutch correspondent Nassreddin Taibi.
Whereas a right-wing coalition would have a much harsher stance towards the EU due to far-right PVV, a centre coalition would also be slightly Eurosceptic in certain areas due to NSC.
“A right-wing coalition would have a hard time striking the balance between the outright euroscepticism of Wilders’ freedom party [PVV] and more pro-European stances of VVD, and a centre-left-wing government would have to find a compromise between the rather eurosceptic views of NSC and PvdA/GL”, Prof. Dr Theresa Kuhn at University of Amsterdam said.
Due to a tougher stance on the EU and likely conflicts between governing parties for diverging views on key topics, “it is likely that the new Dutch government is no longer as much a constructive deal-maker and agenda-setter in the EU as the Rutte government”, Jean Monnet Chair and associate professor at Maastricht University, Gisselle Bosse, told Euractiv.
‘Nexit’, policy opt-outs, and national sovereignty
PVV has long defended a ‘Nexit’ referendum while opposing further integration and accusing the EU of hoarding competencies.
“We also need to take back our national sovereignty. Regain control of our own borders, money and laws. We no longer want diktats from unelected European commissioners on climate or nitrogen, on peasant hatred, or letting in asylum seekers. We choose the Dutch interest”, PVV’s programme reads.
PVV, for example, wants opt-outs on EU regulations and demands that all EU citizens need a working permit to work in the Netherlands – against the EU’s core freedom of movement.
Despite PVV, a right-wing coalition would likely continue to support a united front in the EU’s external dimension, including global trade, defence cooperation, and strategic autonomy, as defended by VVD and NSC in their electoral programmes.
However, NSC opposes further EU integration, rejecting “an ever closer union” in their programme.
“Within Europe, we advocate a firm position from the Netherlands, constructive but realistic, without creeping transfers of tasks, powers and budgets that erode national sovereignty”, the programme reads.
On Sunday, NSC leader Peter Omzight told RTL News that the Netherlands should adopt a harsher stance at the EU level, just like Hungary and Poland.
“I don’t agree at all with Orban in Hungary or with Poland. But they put it on the table a number of times: we want it differently. And then everyone started to react, but in the end, they partly got their way, because they clearly formulated what they wanted. And sometimes the Netherlands just has to do that,” he said.
The NSC is calling for the introduction of a legal mechanism that would oblige the government to respect the opinion of the Dutch parliament when voting on legislative proposals at the EU level – essentially giving national parliaments veto power – and, just like PVV, wants to establish opt-outs from EU policies.
In case there are disagreements with certain EU legislative proposals the party will aim to form a blocking minority with like-minded EU states while threatening that “the Netherlands will opt out and not participate in any new legislative or policy initiative” if no such blocking minority can be found.
Faced with such perspective and the conservatism of VVD, Simon Otjes, political science professor at Leiden University, warned that “the Netherlands is likely to return to a much more frugal, conservative position” after four years of pro-Europeanism.
*Infographic by Tobias Gerhard Schminke
(Max Griera | Euractiv.com)
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