The existential angst of Europe’s left

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Welcome to EU Politics Decoded where Benjamin Fox and Eleonora Vasques will bring you a round-up of the latest political news in Europe and beyond every Thursday. In this edition, we look at the existential questions facing Europe’s left, which are leaving it with a confused – and confusing – future.

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Editor’s Take: The existential angst of Europe’s left

Largely bereft of leadership and new ideas, it’s easy to conclude that Europe’s left has been in a near comatose slumber for at least a decade. Nor are there many strong signs of a reawakening.

Some hoped that Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s social democrat-led coalition in Germany would change that. But polling suggests that Scholz’s party is already toxically unpopular and stands little chance of winning a second term.

The broader picture is not entirely gloomy. Polling suggests that the Socialist group will again finish second to the European People’s Party in next June’s European Parliament elections, but that the margin between the two could be the smallest for nearly 20 years.

Those who thought that Europe’s green parties would progressively replace social democrats as the leading party of the centre-left have, in most cases, been disappointed. In Germany, Spain and elsewhere, when progressive coalitions form, they are typically led by social democrats.

But the left still faces a more existential question: what are they for?

The economic crisis of 2008-2012 wrought huge damage on social democrats across Europe. Whether willingly or by force they adopted austerity budgets that made them, on economic policy at least, more conservative than the conservatives. The so-called ‘social model’ has still not recovered.

Centre-left parties are now leading the campaign to reform the EU’s fiscal rules to make them more accommodating of infrastructure spending, particularly on the green energy transition.

One of the big ideological shifts on the left has been the focus on climate change and energy policy. Climate policy is one of the most important issues for people thinking about voting social democrat.

At an event launching a policy programme drafted by the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, the social democratic thinktank in Germany, speakers stressed how the just energy transition most combine prosperity, along with high quality, unionised jobs, and laws that encourage the green industrial transformation.

However, that often leaves social democrats and greens dipping in the same vote share. In any case, imagining that the left can be revived by putting the word ‘green’ with ‘social’ looks like wishful thinking.

The problem for the centre-left is that they don’t appear to offer much more.

On asylum and migration policy, meanwhile, there is a dwindling number of progressive parties that take a human-rights based approach. Most have aped the tough rhetoric of Giorgia Meloni and others, while others have introduced new border checks. The Danish government was the first to explore the idea of outsourcing asylum processing to Rwanda. Similar campaign language has emerged in Germany in recent weeks, where former Die Linke rebel Sahra Wagenknecht’s new party is offering a diet of big state socialism and social conservatism on LGBTQ rights and migration.

It adds up to a confused and confusing picture. European socialists have developed a tendency to define themselves by what they are not, such Viktor Orban and Marine Le Pen. On its own, that’s not enough.

Who’s electioneering

Dutch head to polls for historic vote. Dutch voters face a tight three way poll ahead of general elections next Wednesday (22 November), where they will elect a new Prime Minister after 13 years of Mark Rutte’s premiership.

Dilan Yeşilgöz, who leads Rutte’s People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, is heading the polls with a strongly anti-immigration campaign.

Pieter Omtzigt, from the New Social Contract party, is leading a campaign focusing on anti-corruption stances. He is selling himself as a “centrist outsider of politics” that does not want to govern but to influence the decisions.

Former EU Climate commissioner Frans Timmersmans is leading a red-green coalition that is also polling strongly, while the Farmer’s party which won the provincial elections in March, also stands to play an important role in coalition negotiations.

Capitals-in-brief

Germany to back €20 billion bid to build hydrogen pipe network. The German government is poised to put its weight behind a network of hydrogen pipelines stretching 9,700 kilometres and coming at a cost of €20 billion in a bid to solve the hydrogen economy’s ‘chicken-and-egg’ dilemma.

France remains neutral on glyphosate. France will again abstain from Thursday’s second vote on the European Commission’s proposal to renew the approval of the contentious herbicide glyphosate for the next decade, French Agriculture Minister Marc Fesneau said on Wednesday.

French police accused of using facial recognition software illegally. The French national police have been illegally using the Israeli facial recognition software Briefcam since 2015, the investigative media Disclose reported.

Poor health prevention spending driving ill health in Slovakia. Despite having one of the worst mortality rates from preventable and treatable causes in the EU, Slovakia’s non-communicable disease prevention expenditure remains among the lowest in the EU.

Poland on track to receive EU funds from modified recovery plan. The European Commission is to approve Poland’s revised recovery plan under the REPowerEU initiative, from which Warsaw applied for €2.76 billion in grants and €23 billion in low-interest loans, media reported on Wednesday.

Albania-Italy migration deal takes next step towards parliamentary vote. The Albanian government has approved the agreement signed by Prime Minister Edi Rama and his Italian counterpart Giorgia Meloni relating to the processing of asylum claims by Italy on Albanian territory, with the next step being a vote in parliament.

Inside the institutions

Commission unveils package to attract migrant workers to EU labour market. The European Commission put forward a series of voluntary measures to facilitate the employment of third-country nationals in the EU in a bid to boost legal migration pathways and help member states address widespread skills and labour shortages.

Spain pushes for deal on due diligence law. The Spanish Presidency of the EU Council is asking member states to compromise on climate and civil liability provisions in exchange for a carve-out of finance from the proposed EU corporate accountability rules, amid growing calls to include the sector under mandatory due diligence checks.

EU Commission urges double reporting of open security loopholes in cybersecurity law. The question of who should receive extremely sensitive cyber threat intelligence has been a sticking point in the negotiations on the Cyber Resilience Act. The European Commission has now proposed a ‘middle way’.

Spanish presidency prepares to finalise EU media law in next negotiation round. The Spanish presidency has requested a revised mandate on the European Media Freedom Act (EMFA) ahead of the next interinstitutional negotiating session when most of the upcoming media legislation is expected to be closed.

EU Ombudsman launches inquiry into Commission’s defence fund selection process. The EU Ombudsman asked the European Commission on Tuesday (14 November) to give guarantees of independence for the experts evaluating the industry’s proposals for the European Defence Fund, in another blow to the EU’s transparency in defence industry policy.

What we are reading

Belgium, France, Spain must halt their Kremlin gas deals, Oleh Savytskyi argues in EU Observer

Suella Braverman was the pantomime villain, but don’t expect the story to change now she’s gone, Owen Jones writes for the Guardian

Free speech can’t flourish online. Social media is an outrage machine, not a forum for sharing ideas and getting at the truth, Jemima Kelly writes for the Financial Times

The next week in politics

Busy agenda next week at the Council. African Union – EU ministerial meeting, Agriculture and Fisheries Council and European Economic Area Council on Monday (20 November). Development Council on Tuesday (21 November). EU-Canada summit, Education, Youth and Sport Council, Informal meeting of equality ministers, on Wednesday and Thursday (23-24)

Members of the European Parliament will gather in Strasbourg for their usual plenary session next week

Thanks for reading. If you’d like to contact us for leaks, tips or comments, drop us a line at [email protected] / [email protected] or contact us on Twitter: @EleonorasVasques & @benfox83

[Edited by Nathalie Weatherald]