Far right steadily leading Austria’s polls

Austria’s far-right FPÖ (ID Group), which has maintained its lead over other parties for a year now, is currently on track to become the country’s strongest party in the national elections set for autumn next year.

Polls suggest the party would win about 29% if an election were held today – 13 points stronger than their 2021 election result. This means the party would beat its 1999 record of 26.9%. FPÖ has defended their pole position in the polls for a year now.

However, in the past, FPÖ has led polls, only to collapse in the campaign’s final weeks.

FPÖ’s current leader, Herbert Kickl, is a far-right hardliner, especially regarding immigration. He also critiqued solidarity with the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy government, arguing it threatens Austria’s neutrality. FPÖ has had close ties with Vladimir Putin’s United Russia party in the past.

The parties that dominated Austrian politics in the second half of the twentieth century, the centre-left Social Democrats (Socialists and Democrats EU Parliament group) and the centre-right Austrian People’s Party (European People’s Party EU Parliament group), are both polling between 20% and 25%.

While this means that the Social Democrats would roughly repeat their 2021 result, it equals a seismic 17-point decline for the People’s Party. If the party dropped below its 2013 result of 24%, it would be headed for its worst result since its creation in 1945.

The coalition partner of the governing People’s Party, the Greens (Greens/EFA EU Parliament group), is polling at 9%, about four points below their 2021 result. With that, the incumbent government would not retain its parliamentary majority.

The liberal NEOS (Renew Europe EU Parliament group) is polling about 11%, three points above their previous result.

After an initial polling surge to about 5% after a successful regional election in Salzburg earlier this year, the resurgent Communist Party has declined to about 2% again, below the 4% legal threshold required to win seats in the national parliament. While 2% may seem insignificant, it would still be the party’s best result since the 1960s.

Like their EU counterparts, Austrians also elect new EU Parliament members in June 2024.

(Tobias Gerhard Schminke, EuropeElects)