German left-wing party Die Linke (GUE/NGL) is on the verge of a split, with the charismatic former group leader Sahra Wagenknecht threatening to run with her own party in the European elections.
After years of clashes with several party leaders, Wagenknecht confirmed this year that she might announce the foundation of a new party by December.
Die Linke is already at a breaking point as it failed to win any seats at last weekend’s regional elections, which co-leader Janine Wissler blamed on tensions with Wagenknecht. Several members demanded Wagenknecht’s exclusion from the party.
Experts believe a split, expected to be made official soon, would have profound consequences for the left in Germany and the European Parliament as Wagenknecht’s new party could steal votes from both Die Linke and the far-right AfD at next June’s European elections.
“Die Linke and the Left in the European Parliament are facing big challenges,” Özlem Demirel, an MEP and one of the Left’s top candidates for the European Parliament, told Euractiv, pointing to the internal turmoil as well as “gains for openly fascist parties”.
Die Linke has long successfully covered the socialist, anti-establishment niche on Germany’s left-wing spectrum, even leading the opposition in 2013.
However, it has been stuck at around 4% in the polls since the last general election.
The Left in crisis
Experts explain this with a shift in voter priorities away from the typical Linke topics surrounding economic redistribution.
“Dissatisfaction after the 2007 financial crisis has translated into conflicts about identity and values in Germany,” Wolfgang Schroeder, a political scientist from the University of Kassel, told Euractiv.
Frustrated voters, especially in the Left’s stronghold in the east, were thus poached by the AfD, a right-wing anti-establishment party, while the Greens squeezed the Left on the social left, Schroeder explained.
Internal quarrels about the party’s future direction did not help.
“Infighting has diverted attention away from our political message, and that is mainly the fault of Sahra Wagenknecht and her allies,” former party leader Bernd Riexinger told Euractiv.
Wagenknecht, who was unavailable for comments, blamed the party’s troubles on its alleged shift from working-class voters towards environmental, gender, and minority politics.
After her persistent criticism, she had no other option but to create her own party to avoid losing credibility, Riexinger argued.
A threat for GUE/NGL
Next year’s European elections promise a favourable setting to premiere such a party, Constantin Wurthmann, a political scientist at the University of Mainz, told Euractiv.
“There is no electoral threshold at European elections while it is 5% for national elections (…). The turnout is also lower. So Wagenknecht only has to mobilise a lot,” he said.
“Half of [Die Linke]’s vote share could be going with her,” Schroeder predicted, eliminating Die Linke from the Bundestag at the next general elections.
A new left-wing party would also pose an untimely challenge for the Left in the European parliament (GUE/NGL) amidst internal turmoil, as Die Linke, a key part, is not the only member struggling.
Syriza, another major member, is at pains to recover from a disastrous election, while its newly elected leader could be moving the party towards the centre-left camp.
Meanwhile, the new Spanish left-wing party Sumar is eyeing a union with the Greens while its compatriot left-wing rivals within GUE/NGL have been left diminished.
Being already the smallest party group, GUE/NGL would be on track to lose nearly 15% of its seats in 2024 when Wagenknecht leaves Die Linke.
A threat to the far-right
However, research by Wurthmann and political scientists Sarah Wagner and Jan-Philipp Tomeczek found that a new Wagenknecht party would also hurt the far-right.
“Our data shows that Wagenknecht’s approval is higher among AfD voters than among Die Linke voters,” Wurthmann told Euractiv.
“[She] is liked (…) by people who consider themselves conservative, are critical of immigration, and partially come from the east”, he said, pointing out that Wagenknecht was “socio-culturally on the right”.
Notably, she was an early opponent of Angela Merkel’s asylum policy and has vocally criticised NATO, making headlines when she organised a “Demonstration for Peace” in Ukraine that was widely considered pro-Russian.
EU a “capitalist conspiracy”
Regarding her stance on the EU, Ludger Volmer, a former Green minister who worked with Wagenknecht on the cross-party left-wing movement “Aufstehen”, testified that she is “deeply anti-European”.
“The EU is a capitalist conspiracy to her,” he told Euractiv.
As a collaboration between Wagenknecht and GUE/NGL is unlikely – with Linke co-leader Martin Schirdewan being in charge of the European group as well – Wagenknecht could in fact be forced to follow the example of Italy’s left-wing populist 5 Star Movement, who intermittently joined a Eurosceptical far-right group in 2014.
There would also be immediate consequences for Die Linke in Germany, though, as it would lose its party group status in the Bundestag if some MPs followed Wagenknecht.
Wurthmann noted, however, that Wagenknecht might struggle to get a new party going as she was incapable of organising a movement, which Riexinger and Volmer confirmed.
Uncertain prospects
The Left’s top brass appear aware of the uphill battle ahead.
“Die Linke will have to use the next eight months to move a lot of things,” Demirel admitted.
The party sets its hope on raising awareness about the role that corporations and extreme wealth play in the rise of the far-right and growing inequality.
“I’m optimistic that we can cut through all the noise if we manage to create an emotional message around this topic,” Martin Schirdewan, both co-leader of the Left and GUE/NGL, told Euractiv.
[Edited by Oliver Noyan]
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