Polish elections key for EU integration efforts, expert says

The victory of the current ruling conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party in Sunday’s parliamentary elections would translate into Warsaw continuing to block deeper EU integration, while little would change from a policy perspective if the opposition came to power, Spasimir Domaradzki, a political analyst at Warsaw University, told Euractiv Poland.

While PiS is currently on track to win the elections, the centre-liberal Civic Coalition led by former European Council President Donald Tusk’s PO (EPP), which is currently in second place in the polls, also has a chance of forming a government, especially in a coalition with smaller parties, namely The Left and the centrist Third Way.

“PiS’ third term would mean the continuation of the policy of blocking discussion of further integration of the European Union, while in case of the current opposition’s victory, many arguments against the integration would be set aside, allowing the remaining EU leaders to proceed with that process,” Domaradzki said.

The opposition is much closer to the concept of deeper EU integration than the ruling PiS and would facilitate initiatives such as another conference on the future of the bloc, while PiS would continue to oppose any efforts that could lead to the bloc strengthening its competencies at the expense of nation-states, he explained.

This is also the view of prominent PiS MEP Zdzisław Krasnodębski, who referred to the report on changes to the EU treaties that will soon be discussed in the European Parliament’s Constitutional Affairs Committee (AFCO).

These proposals include abandoning unanimity voting in the EU Council on issues such as foreign, security and defence policy, extending the list of so-called shared competencies and reducing the number of EU commissioners, meaning that not every country would be represented in the Commission.

But PiS strongly opposes these changes, Krasnodębski told Euractiv Poland.

“We believe the EU should uphold the direction that goes in accordance with the current Treaties,” he said. “The EU is a union of states that share competencies in some fields. Yet, those fields should be clearly defined. Any reforms should rather prevent excessive broadening of the EU institution’s competencies.”, he added.

The ruling party in Poland opposes both political proposals to amend the treaties and any efforts to increase the EU’s powers beyond their current level, Krasnodębski insisted.

The opposition Civic Coalition, on the other hand, aims at deeper involvement in the works of the EU institutions, including the Council of the European Union, as opposed to PiS, which puts itself on the margins of the EU decision-making process, Jan Grabiec, spokesman for the KO’s founding member, the Civic Platform (PO), told Euractiv Poland.

“The idea is to be in the mainstream of the EU’s decision-making, which is beneficial for any country, but in particular for those still catching up on the standard of living, like Poland,” he said.

No major changes in migration

Since the main difference between the current ruling camp in Poland and the opposition is the attitude towards deeper EU integration, a potential change of power would not lead to a dramatic shift in Warsaw’s position as Brussels might expect in many other contentious areas, Domaradzki argued.

One such area is migration, a hot-button issue in Poland.

While PiS tends to threaten the public that if PO comes to power, thousands of illegal, potentially dangerous migrants will come to Poland due to EU pressure, both camps oppose the EU’s new migration and asylum system.

The EU’s migration pact, voted on by the EU Council earlier this year, faced strong opposition from Poland and Hungary, but this did not prevent a qualified majority from adopting the proposal.

Given the heated atmosphere surrounding the issue of immigration in Poland, a PO government might be more inclined to pay to avoid having to accept migrants, Krasnodębski speculated, adding, however, that it would not take a very different stance from the current government, which a PO spokesperson confirmed to Euractiv Poland.

“PO will reject any solutions that would mean accepting even more migrants to Poland, which still faces the increased pressure due to the Ukrainian refugees”, PO spokesperson Jan Grabiec told Euractiv.

“Poland has taken in a few million refugees from Ukraine, and many of them are likely to stay here for a long time,” he pointed out. Grabiec also referred to the EU Commission’s promise that Poland would not be forced to accept any more migrant quotas due to the migration burden from Ukraine.

Softening the rhetoric

In terms of EU foreign policy, it seems that little is expected to change, too, Domaradzki added.

If re-elected, PiS will most likely soften its rhetoric on Ukraine, which has been sharpened in recent months amid the grain import crisis, he said.

The same could be true for Germany, which PiS targeted heavily in its election campaign, according to German MP Christian Petry, the SPD’s spokesman on EU affairs in the Bundestag.

“Unfortunately, verbal armament is often used in election campaigns, and the Polish one is no exception. The relationship between Poland and Germany is particularly sensitive in this respect,” he told Euractiv Germany.

The two countries are now closely linked through membership in the EU and neighbourly and interpersonal relations. Yet, the crimes committed by the German occupiers during the Second World War are still deeply rooted in the consciousness of the population and are often made the subject of public debate, he stressed, adding that Germany’s energy policy has also not helped to build trust for many years and has led to differences.

Nevertheless, Poland and Germany have no choice but to seek solid and resilient relations. Both states are indispensable for security and stability in Europe, Petry said.

“After the elections, there is a chance to return to this path with a cool head and without the effect of the moment.”

[Oliver Noyan contributed reporting]

(Aleksandra Krzysztoszek, Charles Szumski | Euractiv.pl)