Things are looking good for Luxembourg’s current governing coalition as the liberals, the centre-left and the Greens are expected to earn the 31 seats needed to continue ruling the country.
Yet even if those three parties gain the required seats, there is a possibility that Luxembourg will still end up with a new prime minister – or even a new governing coalition – once the dust settles.
The most recent poll was conducted between 7 and 16 August 2023 by ILRES, so it is unclear what level of support parties currently enjoy in the electorate.
However, it is anticipated that Prime Minister Xavier Bettel’s Democratic Party could face challenges remaining larger than their major coalition partner, the Socialist Workers Party (LSAP).
If LSAP were to become the strongest party in the three-way governing ‘Gambia’ coalition, it could possibly deny Bettel a third term as prime minister and demand the position for itself. It is unclear if the DP would want to continue in the passenger seat, and leaders of all three parties have remained coy about what the future will bring.
This election may mark historic worsts and bests for Luxembourg’s other parties.
The Christian Social Peoples Party (EPP), long the dominant force in Luxembourgish politics, has struggled to recover from a continuous decline over the past years and might receive one of its lowest results ever.
The Communist Party of Luxembourg also faces a decline, if only markedly more severe. Formerly considered the fourth strongest party in Luxembourg, the KPL has failed to crack even 2% since 1989. In the last election, the party garnered 1.3%. Given its trajectory, there is reason to believe it will be even less this time.
On the other hand, the Pirate Party of Luxembourg may have the best election in its — admittedly short — history, with observers expecting the party to potentially win a double-digit vote share.
Similarly, the Left seems on course to repeat their previous election results of 5% — their best ever.
(Roman Broszkowski)
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