Slovakia is on the brink of a critical parliamentary election set for Saturday, with a campaign that underlined a stark divide between nationalist sentiments, represented by former socialist prime minister Robert Fico, and the forces of liberalism embodied by the Progressive Slovakia party.
The country has been marred by significant political instability over the past five years, witnessing the rise and fall of four leaders and shifting coalition dynamics. Internal strife and governmental mismanagement, notably during the COVID-19 pandemic, have exacerbated this turbulence.
Following his resignation as prime minister in the wake of Ján Kuciak’s murder, Robert Fico (Smer, S&D Group in the EU Parliament) made a remarkable comeback. He now leads the polls with a commanding 21% support.
Fico’s campaign has taken on a decidedly nationalist and socially conservative tone, raising questions about support for Ukraine and vociferously criticising sanctions against Russia.
Potential coalition allies are the far-right Republika (Non-Inscrits) party or the national-conservative SNS. However, the three parties would remain about 12 seats short of a majority.
“Such a coalition might adopt a policy towards the EU akin to Hungary’s, but its impact would largely hinge on its strength,” Jozef Lenč, a political scientist at the University of Trnava, told Euractiv.
“In the scenario of a potential constitutional majority, the alignment with Hungary’s EU policy would likely be more pronounced, whereas a weaker coalition might have a less pronounced effect. If no such coalition materialises, I believe our EU policy will remain largely unchanged,” he added.
VOTING INTENTION:
The other option
The Progressive Slovakia party (PS/Renew Europe), led by Michal Šimečka, represents the liberal faction in the election. It champions a pro-Western, pro-EU, and pro-NATO agenda.
PS is polling at 17%, providing a liberal alternative to Fico’s nationalist platform.
Potential coalition government partners are the Christian Democrats (KDH, EPP Group) and the libertarian SaS/SASKA (ECR Group) party. The Koalícia OĽANO (EPP) could be another potential partner. However, the centre-right alliance is polling just below the threshold for a multiparty list. The current three-way coalition would remain 23 seats short of a majority.
The centre-left Hlas (projected 24 seats) could enter a government with either bloc, making them somewhat of a kingmaker.
Slovakia employs a party-list proportional representation system coupled with stringent electoral thresholds, which complicates the path to securing parliamentary seats. Parties must clear the following thresholds: 5% for a single-party list, 7% for coalitions comprising two or three parties, and 10% for larger coalitions.
Forming a stable coalition government has become increasingly challenging due to the fragmented political landscape. The election’s outcome remains uncertain, and the role of smaller parties hovering around the electoral threshold will be pivotal in shaping potential coalitions.
Disinformation has played a substantial role in the election campaign, with the dissemination of false information affecting public perceptions on critical issues like the Ukraine war.
(Tobias Gerhard Schminke | Europelects – Additional reporting by Barbara Zmušková)
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Source: euractiv.com
