The UK faces a “real risk of being sidelined” on global affairs due to Brexit, Lord Peter Ricketts, who chairs the House of Lords European Affairs Committee, told EURACTIV in an interview while praising a thaw in the EU-UK relationship.
Lord Ricketts, who insisted he spoke “in personal capacity” to EURACTIV, believes that the EU-UK diplomatic relationship, once “strained,” improved considerably after the adoption of the Windsor Framework, a deal struck in February 2023 with the EU to address the exchange of goods between the UK and Ireland – and, ultimately, the European Single Market.
“The Windsor Framework lifts a real shadow over the whole relationship,” Lord Ricketts, a former ambassador to France and former Permanent Representative to NATO, told EURACTIV.
Previous negotiations over the Northern Ireland Protocol crystallised tensions between both parties, which were characterised, the peer explained, by a “fundamental lack of trust and confidence”.
The deal does not guarantee further diplomatic improvements, “but they enable it”.
Architects of Northern Ireland peace see hope beyond Brexit deadlock
A quarter of a century after unpalatable compromises ended decades of bloodshed in Northern Ireland, some of the architects of the Good Friday Agreement hope that deal can help inspire a route out of the region’s near-permanent political crisis.
Influencing world affairs: “an uphill struggle”
The war in Ukraine and the imposition of international sanctions on Moscow furthered “close and productive […] cooperation” by the EU and the UK, states a report on ‘The future UK-EU relationship’.
The conclusions, published in April by the European Affairs Committee, just months before Lord Ricketts assumed the chairmanship, urge the British government to cooperate with the EU in more structured, rather than ad-hoc, ways, especially on issues pertaining to foreign affairs.
“On sanctions, there is now a de facto very close cooperation” between both parties, Lord Ricketts said, calling for “more systemic cooperation […] across the board, [including] in security and foreign policy,” as opposed to the existing “issue-by-issue” approach that has so far prevailed with British leadership.
He added that the British government should join the EU’s defence-oriented Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) projects where possible.
As for whether Brexit ultimately weakened the UK’s stance on the international stage, Lord Rickets said, “I personally think there is a risk of being sidelined” on global affairs, where “the UK would find it harder to have its voice heard in a world of blocs […], dominated by great power competition”.
As a smaller player than the US or the EU, the UK risks losing some of its rule-setting influence. It might be good news the UK is hosting the Artificial Intelligence (AI) World Congress in November 2023, the peer said, “but the norm-setting on AI is likely to take place between the larger blocs”.
The US-EU Trade and Technology Council (TTC), a flagship forum to discuss all things tech, not only speaks to “interesting” partnerships in the world of tech regulation, but it also means the UK is not privy to any of the brainstorming, Ricketts added.
Ultimately, obtaining any global regulatory influence will be “an uphill struggle” for London.
British-Irish lawmakers push for EU-UK defence cooperation on borderless threats
Parliamentarians of the UK-Ireland Assembly on Tuesday (16 May) called for a closer defence relationship between the EU and the United Kingdom due to the security threat Russia poses since the war in Ukraine.
In their draft report, the European Affairs …
Brexit partly explains economic crisis
Seven years after the referendum, grasping the full picture of Brexit remains a difficult task, particularly related to foreign policy and the economy.
Asked whether Brexit caused sluggish growth and the inflationary spiral the UK has experienced over the past year, “This is controversial territory,” said Lord Ricketts. The peer was keen to stay clear of any bold claims, instead referring to projections by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the UK’s fiscal watchdog, that long-term productivity will fall by 4% under the current EU-UK trade deal, compared to if the UK had stayed in the EU.
The Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), a tariff and quota-free trade pact that came into force in January 2021, also means “both exports and imports will be around 15% lower in the long run than if the UK had remained in the EU,” the OBR found, while trade deals with non-EU countries will have no “material impact” on UK economic growth.
“I think it is generally felt that Brexit has been part of the reason we, at the moment, have the lowest GDP growth and the highest inflation among G7 countries,” Lord Ricketts explained.
As for hopes, earlier in the Brexit debate, that London could scrap swathes of regulations and become a ‘Singapore-on-Thames’, making the most of its comparative advantage on financial services, it’s now “a minority view”, argued Lord Ricketts.
“The closer the government [considered] a bonfire of regulations, the more they found that each regulation had a reason for being there,” he added.
Business interest lies in having a “level playing field” to avoid extra costs, in Ricketts’s view: “the reality is that business is pressing hard for as much alignment of regulations as possible [with the EU]”.
Brexit: UK immigration system found to contribute to labour shortages
Two years in, the post-Brexit points-based immigration system is negatively affecting labour and skills shortages, with low-skilled EU-born workers hit hardest. Wage bargaining in impacted sectors remains at a standstill.
TCA review: small-touch or fundamental reset?
Looking ahead, the EU and the UK are gearing up for elections in 2024 before a review of the TCA in 2025.
“Could [2025] be an opportunity for a more fundamental reset of the relationship, which a future British government might want?” Lord Ricketts asks.
It’s down to political willingness on both sides, “but it’s not clear that the Commission, even under new leadership, would want to do that when they have to think about Ukraine, enlargement, and a hundred other things”.
Instead, the new EU executive might settle for a light-touch, technical review and ensure full implementation is possible before opening up the trade deal in full.
The House of Lords report urges both parties to strike a deal on Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) rules, but the scope could be increased. “You could look at energy cooperation, ETS and CBAM [which regulate carbon emissions], mobility issues and the EU’s CFSP [Common Foreign and Security Policy],” the peer said.
Ultimately, the scope of the review will be determined “with new personalities and potentially a new political agenda,” said Lord Ricketts.
“The issue of what’s for grabs in 2025 remains completely undecided.”
[Edited by Benjamin Fox/Alice Taylor]
Source: euractiv.com
