Three parties lead Dutch election race

The anti-establishment New Social Contract is currently leading Dutch polls, with the GreenLeft (Greens/EFA) and centre-left PvdA (S&D) trailing and the four parties in the fourth Rutte government – which collapsed in July over disagreements on asylum policy – lagging.

After two years of speculation, MP Pieter Omtzigt finally launched his new political party on 20 August: New Social Contract, which sits with the centre-right EPP in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe but has no representation in the EU Parliament yet. Omtzigt is known for his investigations into political scandals, most prominently the Childcare Benefits Scandal.

This backstory has given Omtzigt an “anti-establishment” image, making him popular among voters from left to right. This broad voter coalition puts NSC in first place at 19-20% in the first two polls after the launch of the new party.

Omtzigt mostly takes from agrarian BBB, right-wing PVV and his former party CDA (EPP Group in the EU Parliament), while also attracting voters from left-wing SP, the liberal VVD (Renew Europe), liberal D66 (Renew Europe) and the centre-left GL-PvdA (Greens/EFA|S&D) alliance.

However, it remains to be seen whether Omtzigt can keep this heterogeneous electorate together once his political programme becomes more defined.

GreenLeft (Greens/EFA) and centre-left PvdA (S&D) running on a joint list have turned the two into the leading force left of the centre. The red-green alliance led by former Vice-President of the EU Commission Frans Timmermans polls at 16-18%: a gain of roughly five to seven points from the combined 10.7% the two parties received in the 2021 national parliament election.

These gains originate mostly from D66 and non-voters—furthermore, polls showroom for further growth. Half of D66, animal welfare party PvdD (LEFT), Eurofederalist Volt (Greens/EFA), and SP voters say they are considering switching to GL-PvdA. These would likely be strategic votes for a left-of-centre force to emerge as the largest and have a big chance at leading the next government.

The Dutch landscape is so fragmented that it is difficult to form a government without the largest party.

The four parties in the fourth Rutte government – which collapsed in July over disagreements on asylum policies – struggle in the polls. VVD, now led by Justice Minister Dilan Yesilgöz, polls in third at 14-17%. VVD might have hoped that by letting the government collapse over asylum, immigration would dominate the political agenda and allow for the party to regain support from the various parties on its right.

However, the pollster I&O Research shows that housing, healthcare and poverty are on top of voters’ minds. Furthermore, chances of a full right-wing government consisting of VVD, BBB, PVV, SGP (ECR) and JA21 (ECR) have decreased with NSC running. Before the launch of NSC, the five parties polled about 71-78 seats (76 needed for a majority). Now, this is down to 55-59 seats. Omtzigt’s NSC rules out forming a government with PVV.

Meanwhile, coalition partners D66 and CDA are experiencing bigger electoral troubles. D66 polls at 4-5%, down ten points from the 15.0% received in 2021.

CDA sees its polling numbers decline further, with Omtzigt running to below 3%, the lowest result ever for the once omnipotent Christian democrats that have been part of the government for 92 of the past 105 years. Lastly, the Christian Union (CU, EPP) also sees its support drop to below 3% at three or four seats, down from the reliable five seats the party received election after election.

(Tobias Gerhard Schminke | EuropeElects)