Spain: polls suggest government change

Spain is heading to the polls next Sunday to elect a new national parliament, and one of the EU’s most powerful member states may get a new cabinet, as recent polls suggest that the left-of-centre coalition and their regionalist allies may lose seats necessary for the continuation of the incumbent minority government.

The centre-left PSOE (S&D Group in the EU Parliament), led by Prime Minister and European Council member Pedro Sánchez, is polling at its November 2019 election result of 28%.

However, its minor coalition partners, a range of left-wing and environmentalist parties under the Sumar alliance banner in this election, are set to decline – from about 15% in 2019 to now only 13%.

Simultaneously, regionalist parties are set to lose seats. If polls proved true in the election, it could put the nail into the coffin of the first coalition government in the history of Spain since its return to democracy in the 1970s.

The centre-right opposition party, the PP (EPP Group in the EU Parliament), is set to increase its vote share substantially from 21% in 2019 to now 35%. The PP would be in the pole position to take over the government under its leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo, however, it would require support from other parties.

The far-right Vox (which sits with the national-conservative ECR Group in the EU Parliament) is set to suffer a setback from 15% in 2019 to now only 12%. But despite these losses, PP and Vox would hold a majority of seats, making a relaunch of the current Sanchez government impossible.

However, Feijóo has emphasised that he does not consider Vox a good partner in government, stating that he feels closer to moderate PSOE politicians than to the radical right. PSOE critiques PP for allowing Vox into government in several Spanish regions and cities, including the Balearic Islands and Extremadura.

The liberal Ciudadanos (Renew Europe in the EU Parliament) party chose not to contest the election after devasting regional election results earlier this year.

If Sánchez were to lose the election, he would also lose his seat in the European Council, reducing the share of the centre-left socialists at least temporarily to only four out of 27, the lowest it has been since the beginning of the 2019-2024 European Parliament term.