Michel ‘re-energises’ Turkey’s EU future, contradicts Commission

In a “puzzling” meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, EU Council chief Charles Michel vowed to “re-energise” Turkey’s EU future, although a couple of hours before, the European Commission in Brussels rejected Ankara’s request to unfreeze EU accession talks to greenlight Sweden’s accession into NATO.

Erdoğan was in the midst of a meeting with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg and Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson to discuss Sweden’s NATO bid when he stepped out to meet with Michel.

The decision from Turkey to unblock Sweden’s accession came shortly after, raising several questions on what was said, promised and the role of Michel.

After he spoke to Erdoğan, Michel tweeted that the two men had a “good meeting” in which they explored opportunities ahead to bring EU-Turkey cooperation “back to the forefront and re-energise our relations”.

Michel also said the EU Council had invited the High Representative and the European Commission to submit a report with a view to proceed “in a strategic and forward-looking manner”.

Both EU top diplomat Josep Borrell and EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen welcomed the “good news” from Vilnius on Twitter without commenting on Michel’s “re-energising” proposal.

Just a few hours before the breakout meeting between Michel and Erdoğan, the Commission rejected Turkey’s request to re-open EU accession talks – frozen since 2018 – in order for Ankara to give its greenlight to Sweden’s NATO accession.

The Commission clearly said these were two different procedures.

Furthermore, the EU Commission’s progress report for 2022 showed that Turkey continues to lag in a number of issues ranging from tensions with Greece and Cyprus – both EU member states – to democratic backsliding and a judiciary controlled by the government.

As questions remain over what motivated the last-minute change in direction, Washington, in a diplomatic statement, said the US has always supported Turkey’s EU path but insisted it was a bilateral matter to be sorted between the EU and Ankara.

It is unclear whether Michel consulted with other EU leaders, such as von der Leyen, before committing to Ankara. It is also not certain either whether Michel’s promises were wishful thinking, designed to allow Erdoğan to satisfy his domestic audience and justify his greenlight for Sweden, or something more concrete.

Berlin fumes

What is certain is that Erdoğan made no commitment when it comes to specific timelines for Sweden’s NATO accession, and his attempt to link Turkey’s EU path with Sweden’s NATO accession created frustration among EU member states, particularly Germany.

“I think that one should not understand this as a connected issue,” German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told journalists in Berlin.

Other German politicians were much less diplomatic. “Erdoğan’s demand is a barefaced insult,” said liberal FDP MP Thomas Hacker.

Some chastised the Turkish government for attempting to circumvent EU criteria through NATO accession talks – particularly as the two organisations are not related.

“Erdogan knows that the basis for Turkey’s accession negotiations is the [EU’s] Copenhagen criteria and not the talks on Sweden’s accession to NATO,” stressed Max Lucks, a foreign policy specialist with the Greens.

Neither NATO nor the EU “should be influenced by Erdoğan’s attempted blackmail,” insisted Florian Hahn, security policy spokesman for the conservative CSU.

“Because one thing is clear: Turkey has no future in the EU for the foreseeable future,” he added.

Norbert Röttgen, a centre-right CDU foreign policy specialist, stressed that “EU and NATO are two separate organisations.”

But they have in common that “blackmail is not an acceptable way of conducting business,” he added.

Resetting Greece-Turkey relations

Meanwhile, Athens- which lifted its opposition to Ankara’s EU path in 1999- is closely watching the developments with Turkey as the latter also added in its “bazaar” with the West another issue, its long-standing request toward Washington to modernise its F-16 fighter jet fleet.

Read more: Athens on alert as Turkey brings F-16 jets into Sweden’s NATO talks

US President Joe Biden told CNN in an interview earlier this week, “Turkey is looking for modernisation of F-16 aircraft. And [Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos] Mitsotakis in Greece is also looking for some help.”

The “help” Biden referred to is Greece’s request to purchase F-35 combat aircrafts from Washington to strengthen its security in the region.

“And so, what I’m trying to, quite frankly, put together is a little bit of a consortium here, where we’re strengthening NATO in terms of the military capacity of Greece and Turkey and allow Sweden to come in. But it’s in play. It’s not done,” Biden continued.

Athens is seeking guarantees from the US that Turkey’s modernised F-16 fleet will not pose a threat to the Aegean Sea as part of an ongoing maritime dispute in which Turkey openly questions Greek islands’ sovereignty.

US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Bob Menendez, who in the past opposed selling F-16 to Turkey due to its aggressive attitude in the Mediterranean Sea, said on Monday that discussions over upgrading the Turkish F-16 were still ongoing.

“We’re having conversations with the administration […] If they (Biden administration) can find a way to ensure that Turkey’s aggression against its neighbours ceases, which there has been a lull the last several months, that’s great, but there has to be a permanent reality”, Reuters quoted him as saying.

Mitsotakis and Erdoğan are expected to have a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of NATO’s summit.

Greek press reports suggest that both countries aim for a “reset” in their relations, something that Washington particularly pushes for.

Quoting Greek government sources, they also pointed out that Athens has low expectations from that meeting, insisting on its line that the only issue discussed with Turkey is the delimitation of the Exclusive Economic Zone and the Aegean continental shelf.

On the other hand, Turkey questions the overall status quo in southeastern Mediterranean.

Although public finances in both countries do not look good, Greek media reported Monday that Washington would satisfy both countries’ defence needs.

(Sarantis Michalopoulos | EURACTIV.com, Nikolaus J. Kurmayer | EURACTIV.de)