The Dutch government of Prime Minister and European Council member Mark Rutte from the liberal VVD (Renew Europe Group in the EU Parliament) party resigned due to a dispute over migration policy, and elections will be held earlier than planned, now likely in the autumn of this year.
Rutte has been the longest-serving prime minister of the country, starting in his position in 2010.
Polls suggest that the fragmented political landscape in the Netherlands will not consolidate.
The VVD won the 2021 election with only 21.9% before Rutte formed a coalition government with the liberal D66 (Renew Europe), the centre-right CDA (EPP) and the Christian fundamentalist, economically centre-left CU (EPP).
The VVD is now polling at only 14.8% in the Europe Elects polling average, which would be the party’s worst result since 2006 if repeated in an election. Rutte’s coalition partners are not faring much better: D66, which just lost one of its two Members in the European Parliament to the Eurofederalist Volt (Greens/EFA) party, is polling at 7.0% (2021: 15.0%).
The CDA is polling at 4.2% (2021: 9.5%), a new record-low for the party that first contested elections in the 1970s. The CU is polling at 3.0% (2021: 3.4%).
The agrarian BBB party, which currently has no formal international ties, could be the main profiteer from the decline of the centre-right camp, which polls see at around 17%, up from only 1% in the last election.
Geert Wilders’s right-wing PVV party is set to decline from 10.8% to 9.2%. That would be the second-worst result the one-man-party has ever received. Polls see the left-wing Socialist Party (SP; Left) at 5.0%, slightly below their result of 2021 of 6.0% and at their worst since 1998.
Green and social democratic parties can make minor gains. Frans Timmerman’s PvdA (S&D) is polling at 6.8%, just slightly above their 5.7% in 2021. Jesse Klaver’s GL (Greens/EFA) is polling 8.5%, up from only 5.2% in the last election.
The Animal Welfare Party (PvdD; Left) is polling at 6.5% (2021: 3.8%), its best result so far. Volt, also represented in the EU and Bulgarian parliament, is polling at 4.0% (2021: 2.4%).
The right-wing Forum for Democracy party is polling at 3.0%, down from 5.2% in 2021. The national-conservative JA21 (ECR) party is polling at 4.4%, up from 2.4%. The right-wing, Christian fundamentalist SGP (ECR) party is polling at 2.0%, in line with their 2021 result.
The right-wing BVNL, the left-wing BIJ1, the centrist 50PLUS, and the centrist and self-declared immigrant-interest party DENK are expected to enter parliament with less than 2% each.
The threshold to enter the national parliament in the Netherlands is 0.67%.
(Tobias Gerhard Schminke | EuropeElects)
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Source: euractiv.com
