The European Parliament’s recent vote to increase the number of seats will likely be rejected by ministers, with the status quo the most likely outcome as EU member states start negotiations with highly divergent positions.
First with a rushed and rocky path within the European Parliament, the composition of the parliament is now in the EU Council’s hands and is set to be discussed in the coming weeks.
The Parliament has proposed awarding two extra seats to Spain and the Netherlands and one to Austria, Denmark, Finland, Slovakia, Ireland, Slovenia and Latvia to correctly apply the degressive proportionality principle required under EU treaties.
Far from agreeing with the Parliament’s proposal, though, the seat allocation has proven to be a “very delicate issue” due to member states’ “diverging opinions”, an EU official said.
For example, while France and Belgium claim four and two extra seats, respectively – which was not contemplated in the Parliament’s proposal – the Dutch and Germans oppose enlarging the Parliament and propose instead either reshuffling or decreasing the number of seats to keep the degressive proportionality principle, EU diplomats say.
In the case of Germany – which recently reduced its parliament’s number of seats by 106 – there is an added interest in keeping the status quo as the country already holds the maximum amount.
With these diverse positions, and bearing in mind this file requires unanimity to be passed, it seems the EU Council will struggle to reach the initial objective of agreeing on a common position before the summer recess – so that member states have enough time to prepare for the EU elections scheduled for 6-9 June 2024.
Due to the file’s urgency, the Council will try to find an agreement following the written procedure instead of ordinary in-person meetings.
‘Default mode’
Given the diverging views and the need for unanimity to reach an agreement, the most likely scenario is what one EU diplomat referred to as the “default mode”.
If no agreement is reached, as happened with the EU elections date, the number of Parliament seats would stay at 705 with no reallocation – thus undermining the principle of degressive proportionality enshrined in the Treaties, as the current seat allocation does not follow it.
Another scenario on the table, keeping 705 seats but reallocating the number of seats each country holds to apply the degressive proportionality principle correctly, also seems quite unlikely as it would create winners-and-loser, making unanimity hard to reach.
The most unlikely option is to either decrease or add seats.
On the one hand, decreasing seats would mean some countries would have their number – and parliamentary power – reduced, which would be a bitter pill to swallow.
On the other hand, adding seats would allow other countries to claim more representatives, as France and Belgium are already doing – though there would be opposition from Eurosceptic governments.
(Max Griera | EURACTIV.com – Additional reporting by Théo Bourgery-Gonse)
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