Centre-right PP to obtain landslide victory in Madrid: poll

Madrid’s regional president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso (PP/EPP), would obtain the absolute majority in the upcoming municipal election and could govern the region, for a second term, without the support of the far-right VOX party, a fresh poll by 40dB published Monday predicts.

With just three weeks before the regional and municipal elections on 28 May, the 40dB study for El País and private radio station Cadena SER published a poll on Monday.

According to the poll, PP’s regional leader in Madrid is set to govern alone with 46.6% as her party is predicted to go from 65 to 69 seats – one more than the 68 required to govern solo.

As for the socialist PSOE party of Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez –on the side of the opposition in Madrid, it is predicted to have 27 seats– still more than the 26 seats predicted for left-wing Más Madrid (More Madrid).

At the same time, the poll also warns that if left-wing Unidas Podemos (United We Can/EU Left) enters Madrid’s regional parliament, Díaz Ayuso could lose the absolute majority.

Still, Díaz Ayuso’s future success would be built on Unidas Podemos, Izquierda Unidas (United Left) and Alianza Verde (Green Alliance) falling short of the minimum 5% threshold needed to enter the parliament with 4.4%, according to the poll.

However, the possible absolute majority for Díaz Ayuso’s party is not guaranteed as Unidas Podemos could still obtain the minimum number of seven seats, meaning the number of seats, including for PP, would thus be reduced.

“It is very important to take into account the degree of uncertainty about Podemos, as it is in the region of 5% of the vote that marks its entry into parliament and, given the margin of error of the survey, this is like flipping a coin”, Belén Barreiro, director of 40dB, told El País.

In case of re-election, the current president of the Madrid region recently insisted that she would prefer to govern alone, without having to rely on VOX’s support, as this would allow the far-right party to block initiatives put forward by her party.

Relations between Díaz Ayuso and VOX are almost broken. According to the poll, the far-right party – currently the third force at the national level – would maintain its current representation in the regional parliament, with 13 MPs.

Spain will hold regional and municipal elections on 28 May, with a general election expected to take place in December, during the country’s final month at the helm of the EU Council presidency.

(Fernando Heller | EuroEFE.EURACTIV.es)