Shock and outrage over the fall of Roe v. Wade has faded as confusion has spread, deflating Democrats’ hopes that the issue could carry them to victory.
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Signs of support for abortion rights last month outside the Capitol in Madison, Wis. Abortion became illegal in Wisconsin after Roe was overturned, with a law that dates to 1849.
In the first major election since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the debate over abortion rights has not emerged as a political silver bullet for Democrats, who have largely abandoned hopes that a surge of voter outrage over the decision alone would lift them over obstacles they face in the midterms.
After spending hundreds of millions of campaign dollars on abortion messages — nearly $415 million on ads alone — Democrats have found the impact to be uneven. While support for abortion access is driving the party’s most loyal voters, it does not appear to be outweighing economic concerns for pivotal swing voters.
Strategists and pollsters say voters remain uncertain about the tangle of state laws that have replaced federal protections and about candidates’ positions — one sign that Republicans, who were caught flat-footed by the victory they spent decades working to achieve, may have successfully muddied the waters about their positions.
“These laws can be complicated and convoluted,” Sarah Godlewski, state treasurer of Wisconsin, a Democrat who started a PAC to support state candidates who support abortion rights and flip control of the State Legislature. “It is patchworked across the entire country, it is very confusing.”
Public opinion on the issue hasn’t changed. If anything, voters are more supportive of Roe than they were before it was overturned in a landmark ruling that eliminated a federal right to an abortion. A majority of Americans still support legal abortion, at least through the first trimester of pregnancy. But those views vary by state, with voters in many conservative places where the procedure has been restricted more likely to say abortion should be mostly or fully illegal.
Many Democrats remain optimistic that voters will support abortion rights when the issue is put before them on a referendum. For months, they have been optimistic about Michigan, where many believed a measure to amend the state constitution to protect abortion rights would drive voters to the polls and help lift Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, to re-election.
But privately some Michigan Democrats have begun to worry that voters’ increasing focus on the economy could jeopardize Ms. Whitmer, whose polling lead has shrunk in recent weeks, as well as the ballot measure.
ImageGov. Gretchen Whitmer spoke to supporters on Wednesday during a campaign event in Mount Pleasant, Mich.Credit…Brittany Greeson for The New York Times
In bluer states where abortion remains a protected right, issues like gasoline prices, inflation and crime have already emerged as more forceful motivators. In places like New York, Nevada and New Mexico, where state law protects abortion, Democratic candidates for governor have tried to draw a contrast with their opponents. The Republicans have urged voters to all but ignore the issue, saying they have no plans to change current law.
“There’s no place in the country where abortion’s not on the ballot,” said Mini Timmaraju, president of NARAL Pro-Choice America. But, she acknowledged it’s not having the same impact everywhere. “In a state like Connecticut, where there may not be anything driving a contrast, issues around inflation could be more impactful because it may not feel as visceral.”
The State of the 2022 Midterm Elections
Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.
- Biden’s Speech: In a prime-time address, President Biden denounced Republicans who deny the legitimacy of elections, warning that the country’s democratic traditions are on the line.
- State Supreme Court Races: The traditionally overlooked contests have emerged this year as crucial battlefields in the struggle over the course of American democracy.
- Democrats’ Mounting Anxiety: Top Democratic officials are openly second-guessing their party’s pitch and tactics, saying Democrats have failed to unite around one central message.
- Social Security and Medicare: Republicans, eyeing a midterms victory, are floating changes to the safety net programs. Democrats have seized on the proposals to galvanize voters.
Democrats acknowledge the issue has gradually faded. Representative Abigail Spanberger, who is seeking re-election in one of the country’s most competitive districts, says her opponent’s abortion views have given the issue additional traction in her central Virginia district. Her first advertisement of the campaign season featured an attack on her Republican opponent, Yesli Vega, as “too extreme for Virginia,” citing Ms. Vega’s support for bans.
But as the surprise of the decision has faded, abortion rights has become a steady backdrop to her race — often listed as a reason voters plan to support her.
“It is a motivating factor but there isn’t the ‘oh my gosh, can you believe this has happened?’” she said. “Because that happened a few months ago.”
Since the court’s decision in June, more than a dozen states have banned abortion from conception, allowing few exceptions. But lawsuits have paused many of those bans while court cases proceed. Other states have multiple bans in place, leading to confusion.
ImageIn Georgia last month, anti-abortion protesters interrupted a campaign event for Stacey Abrams, the Democrats’ candidate for governor.Credit…Gabriela Bhaskar/The New York Times
The flurry of action has disoriented voters, making it difficult for Democrats to build a sense of urgency.
In Wisconsin, for example, abortion became illegal after Roe was overturned, with a law that dates to 1849. But the Republican running for governor has suggested he will not support enforcement of the near-total ban. Democratic district attorneys in the state’s two largest counties have said they won’t enforce the ban and Attorney General Josh Kaul, a Democrat, filed a lawsuit seeking to overturn it. Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat who is running for re-election, has called for a constitutional amendment to repeal the ban, but has been blocked by the Republican State Legislature.
Ms. Godlewski says voters she talks with are often “shocked” to learn that abortion is illegal in their state.
“They assume we are like Minnesota or Illinois, where access is still available,” she said.
Republican voters who might oppose their party on abortion are not so easy for Democrats to flip on the issue alone. In Tucson, Susan Elliot, a Republican who broadly supports abortion rights, plans to vote for Republicans straight down the ticket. Her concerns about the economy and inflation outweighed her support for abortion rights.
“The ‘great resignation’ and inflation and crazy prices are something that is harming me daily,” Ms. Elliot, 54, said. “And whether abortion is legal or not, or whatever weeks they want to do, doesn’t make any difference in my life.”
For Republicans, the political dynamics have shifted, too. A party that spent decades on a unifying message of overturning Roe failed to settle, post-Roe, on a central message, dividing strategists, party leaders and activists. Anti-abortion groups tried to rally Senate candidates with a proposal to ban abortion at 15 weeks nationwide, while other candidates waffled and tried to avoid the issue altogether.
Republicans spent $11 million on television ads focused on abortion, according to AdImpact, a media-tracking firm.
ImageA measure on the ballot in Michigan will ask voters whether to uphold the right to an abortion there. Credit…Brittany Greeson for The New York Times
John Helmberger, who leads the Minnesota Family Council, which opposes abortion, acknowledged that the top priorities for voters were “rising crime and falling economic prospects,” with “abortion a distant third.”
But he also sees new energy from abortion opponents, who were outraged when a Minnesota judge ruled recently that many state abortion restrictions were unconstitutional, and wanted the overturning of Roe to advance their cause in their state.
“They know the fight isn’t over,” he said.
Existing at the intersection of health care, faith and law, abortion politics typically plays out over decades, not just one campaign cycle. Republicans spent years working to elect senators and a president to ultimately change the makeup of the Supreme Court in hopes of overturning Roe.
Abortion rights are directly on the ballot in several states, where voters will decide on measures to amend their state constitutions. California, Michigan and Vermont will ask voters whether to affirm the right to abortion in their state constitutions, and Kentucky will ask voters whether to reject it.
Perhaps the biggest test of the power of abortion to energize voters is occurring in Michigan.
Abortion opponents there say the amendment has motivated their side. They’ve poured money into digital and television advertising, mailers and canvassing operations that paint the amendment as an “extreme” provision that would allow abortion throughout pregnancy. If approved, the measure would establish an individual right to “reproductive freedom” and allow the state to regulate the procedure after fetal viability but not prohibit it under certain conditions.
Activists are watching the outcome of less prominent elections that could have long-term consequences for abortion in different states.
ImageProtesters outside a Planned Parenthood clinic in Tempe, Ariz.Credit…Adriana Zehbrauskas for The New York Times
In North Carolina, Republicans need a net pickup of five seats in the General Assembly to reach a supermajority, which could override a veto of an anti-abortion bill from the Democratic governor. In the Wisconsin Legislature, they need six. In Pennsylvania, if the incoming Legislature approves it, a legislatively referred ballot initiative to amend the state constitution could soon reach voters for final approval.
In Minnesota, a state that is an island of abortion access in the region, Democrats and Republicans are fighting for control of about 20 seats to determine party control of the Legislature.
Elsewhere, attorney general races could determine how now-contested state abortion bans might be enforced. In Arizona, where abortion is banned after 15 weeks, the Republican attorney general candidate Abraham Hamadeh has indicated he would uphold a near-total abortion ban dating to 1864 that has no exceptions for rape or incest. Kris Mayes, the Democrat, has said she “will not prosecute any doctor, any pharmacist, any nurse, for abortion,” even if anti-abortion laws are in place.
State supreme court justices are elected positions in some states, making races even more significant now that abortion law is determined at a state level. Partisan control of supreme courts is up for grabs in Ohio, North Carolina and Michigan.
“Everything is going to be close,” said Ianthe Metzger, director of state advocacy communications for Planned Parenthood. “A lot is at stake.”
Still, the extraordinary policy landscape has turned the theoretical into real political choices, prompting some voters to reassess their priorities.
In Western Michigan, Amanda Stratton, 37, had long considered herself a “pro-life” voter. But this November, Ms. Stratton, a stay-at-home mother, voted for Democrats. Five difficult miscarriages changed her beliefs, she said, and now the debate felt urgent.
“I just thought it was kind of locked in there, and it was just something that we wouldn’t have to worry about,” said Ms. Stratton, recalling her shock when Roe fell. “I want people in power who are making these decisions to be pro-choice and help to restore that here in Michigan and hopefully across the country.”
Kristen Bayrakdarian contributed reporting.
Source: nytimes.com
