President Biden’s remarks reflect the urgent concern in Washington and among Western allies that Russia may be searching for a pretext to unleash a battlefield nuclear weapon.
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Ukrainian officials have accused Russia of secretly building dirty bombs at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
WASHINGTON — President Biden renewed his warning to President Vladimir V. Putin on Tuesday that it would be an “incredibly serious mistake” to use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, reflecting the increasingly urgent concern in Washington and among Western allies that Russia may be searching for a pretext to unleash such a weapon.
Mr. Biden said that he was still uncertain if Russia was trying to put together a “false flag operation” in which it would detonate a dirty bomb and blame the Ukrainians. A dirty bomb is not a nuclear weapon, but an improvised device that uses conventional explosives to spread radioactive material.
But it was clear from Mr. Biden’s comments that he is far less concerned about a dirty bomb than about the possibility that a set of incidents could result in Russia detonating a battlefield nuclear weapon, the first to be used in a conflict since the United States dropped atomic weapons on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
“Let me just say: Russia would be making an incredibly serious mistake for it to use a tactical nuclear weapon,” Mr. Biden said in response to a reporter’s question about whether Russia was preparing a dirty bomb. “I’m not guaranteeing you that it’s a false flag operation yet, don’t know, but it would be a serious, serious mistake.”
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President Biden warned President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia against using a tactical nuclear weapon on Ukraine. The Kremlin has accused Kyiv, without providing evidence, of planning to set off a “dirty bomb.”CreditCredit…Doug Mills/The New York Times
Mr. Biden’s comments, and a complex exchange of accusations between Russia and Ukraine, were the latest demonstration of how high tensions are running at a moment when Russia is losing ground and sees no pathway to controlling vast swaths of the four provinces it recently annexed.
It is part of what American officials have called an inescapable paradox of the conflict: While the United States and its NATO allies are committed to helping Ukraine expel Russia from its territory, the more successful the Ukrainians are, the greater the risk that Russia will break the unwritten taboo against employing nuclear weapons.
The State of the War
- Fears of Escalation: Western officials said Moscow was seeking to create a pretext for escalating the war by making false claims that Kyiv was preparing to detonate a dirty bomb on its own territory.
- Anti-Drone Warfare: Since Russia began terrorizing Ukrainian cities in recent weeks with Iranian-made drones, Ukraine has turned its focus to an intense counter-drone strategy. The hastily assembled effort has been surprisingly successful.
- A Devastated Land: Ukrainians who are returning to liberated towns are encountering destruction on a staggering scale, vital services cut and the prospect of a lethal winter ahead.
- A New Front?: Russia is massing thousands of troops in its western neighbor Belarus, raising fears that Moscow might plan to open another front in the war. But officials in Kyiv and Washington are casting doubt on whether the buildup represents a serious threat.
It is also a reminder that Russia may have more riding on the outcome of the war in Ukraine than it has in any conflict it has fought since it first successfully tested a nuclear weapon in August 1949, when Harry S. Truman was president.
Russia’s top military officials began the series of accusations about dirty bombs over the weekend, warning their American counterparts, Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of staff, Gen. Mark A. Milley, that Ukraine was planning to detonate a radiological attack on Ukrainian soil. They offered no evidence.
Just hours before Mr. Biden spoke at the White House, Ukraine responded, accusing the Russians of secretly building dirty bombs themselves at Europe’s largest nuclear power plant, which Russian troops now occupy.
American intelligence officials are divided about Russia’s intentions. Some believe that the repeated threats to use nuclear weapons are a bluff; others say they are part of a Russian military doctrine called “escalate to de-escalate,” in which a small nuclear device is set off to warn adversaries to stay away.
Over the past few weeks, the Biden administration has been conducting tabletop exercises, trying to game out how Russia might try to gain an advantage by threatening to use a nuclear weapon — and under what conditions it might actually detonate one. The purpose of the exercises, officials say, is to figure out how the United States and its allies might respond.
No one in the administration is arguing for a nuclear response. But among the options under debate are conventional military strikes on Russian forces inside Ukraine, likely executed by Ukrainian forces. The United States and its NATO allies would use the moment to further isolate Russia from the world — especially China and other nations, like India, that have been continuing to buy its oil. But it is unclear how Beijing in particular would respond to a Russian use of a small nuclear weapon, no matter how destructive.
Updates: Russia-Ukraine War
Updated Oct. 25, 2022, 5:56 p.m. ET
- U.S. officials and Griner’s supporters vow to keep fighting.
- Biden issues a stark warning to Russia against using a tactical nuclear weapon.
- Russia’s unsupported ‘dirty bomb’ claims reverberate in right-wing U.S. communities.
On Tuesday, Mr. Biden was asked by a reporter whether Russia “is preparing to deploy a dirty bomb itself or a nuclear weapon.” The president focused on the second part of the question. While officials say a dirty bomb would be a tragic escalation, their clear concern is what it could portend. In American intelligence agencies and the Pentagon, there is fear Russia would stage a provocation to justify using a nuclear weapon in response.
American officials appeared to have some intelligence that backed up the fear, but they refused to discuss what it is, or how convincing it is. But in making public Russia’s claims to Mr. Austin and General Milley, they appeared to be following a pattern of making information public in an effort to box in Mr. Putin as he looks for options beyond relying on his failing military force.
“Russia is pushing transparently false allegations,” Karine Jean-Pierre, the White House press secretary, told reporters on Tuesday. “In the past, we’ve seen Russia use allegations as a pretext to escalate. And as the president said, we don’t know if that is the case here.”
In a briefing to reporters, the Pentagon repeatedly pushed back against Russia’s claims that Ukraine is building a dirty bomb and said that any Russian use of such a weapon would merit a response by the United States.
“The allegations that Ukraine is building a dirty bomb are false,” said Brig. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder, the Pentagon press secretary, in a briefing Tuesday afternoon. “We have not seen at this time, though, any indication that Russia has made a decision or intends to employ nuclear weapons or a dirty bomb.”
“It is something that we will continue to watch closely,” he added. “And certainly, as others have said, there would be consequences for Russia whether it uses a nuclear weapon or a dirty bomb.”
Neither the United States nor NATO has made any changes to the posture of their nuclear forces as a result of Russia’s recent allegations, the general said.
Meanwhile, Russia notified the United States and NATO that it intends to conduct a regularly scheduled military exercise of its nuclear forces, called Grom.
General Ryder called this “a routine annual exercise by Russia,” saying it notified the United States in compliance with “its arms control obligations and its transparency commitments.”
Though the exercise was expected, the major nuclear powers often suspend missile tests and exercises at moments of high tension, to avoid false alarms and miscalculations. In the spring and summer the Biden administration delayed several tests of nuclear-capable missiles, though ultimately some were conducted.
Just as there was no way to verify Russia’s dubious claims about Ukraine’s dirty-bomb plans, there was no way to test Ukraine’s contention, by its nuclear operations firm Energoatom, that Russian forces occupying the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant were making dirty bombs of their own.
Russian forces have been in control of the Zaporizhzhia plant, in southern Ukraine, since early March, but it is still run by Ukrainian engineers who report to officials in Kyiv.
Officials at Energoatom said that Russians at the plant were carrying out unauthorized work in the dry spent nuclear fuel storage facility, which holds 174 containers, each containing 24 spent nuclear fuel assemblies.
“Energoatom assumes that such actions of the invaders may indicate that they are preparing a terrorist act using nuclear materials and radioactive waste stored” at the Zaporizhzhia plant, the company said in a statement. “Destruction of these containers as a result of explosion will lead to a radiation accident and radiation contamination of several hundred square kilometers of the adjacent territory.”
It offered no evidence for its contention that the containers were being destroyed. The International Atomic Energy Agency keeps two inspectors, on a rotation schedule, at the plant.
John Ismay, Jim Tankersley and Noah Weiland contributed reporting from Washington.
Source: nytimes.com
