A New York Times/Siena College poll found that other problems have seized voters’ focus — even as many do not trust this year’s election results and are open to anti-democratic candidates.
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Voters in Atlanta casting early ballots this month. Twenty-eight percent of voters nationwide said they had little to no faith in the accuracy of this year’s elections, a New York Times/Siena College poll found.
Voters overwhelmingly believe American democracy is under threat, but seem remarkably apathetic about that danger, with few calling it the nation’s most pressing problem, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll.
In fact, more than a third of independent voters and a smaller but noteworthy contingent of Democrats said they were open to supporting candidates who reject the legitimacy of the 2020 election, as they assigned greater urgency to their concerns about the economy than to fears about the fate of the country’s political system.
Voters who are open to candidates who reject 2020 election results
Thinking about a candidate for political office who you agree with on most positions, how comfortable would you be voting for that candidate if they say they think the 2020 election was stolen?
Very
Somewhat
Not too
Not at all
Registered
voters
18%
21%
14%
40%
BY PARTY IDENTIFICATION
4
Democrat
8
13
70
Independent
15
22
18
42
Republican
36
35
13
10
Don’t know/refused to answer
Very
Somewhat
Not too
Not at all
Registered voters
18%
21%
14%
40%
BY PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Democrat
4
8
13
70
Independent
15
22
18
42
Republican
36
35
13
10
Don’t know/refused to answer
Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 792 registered voters nationwide from Oct. 9 to 12, 2022. Party identification is self-identified and does not include voters who lean toward one party; independents include only self-identified independents.
By Ashley Wu
The doubts about elections that have infected American politics since the 2020 contest show every sign of persisting well into the future, the poll suggested: Twenty-eight percent of all voters, including 41 percent of Republicans, said they had little to no faith in the accuracy of this year’s midterm elections.
Political disagreements appear to be seeping into the fabric of everyday life. Fourteen percent of voters said political views revealed a lot about whether someone is a good person, while 34 percent said it revealed a little. Nearly one in five said political disagreements had hurt relationships with friends or family.
“I do agree that the biggest threat is survival of our democracy, but it’s the divisiveness that is creating this threat,” said Ben Johnson, 33, a filmmaker from New Orleans and a Democrat. “It feels like on both sides, people aren’t agreeing on facts anymore. We can’t meet in the middle if we can’t agree on simple facts. You’re not going to be able to move forward and continue as a country if you can’t agree on facts.”
The poll showed that voters filtered their faith in democracy through a deeply partisan lens. A majority of voters in both parties identified the opposing party as a “major threat to democracy.”
Most Republicans said the dangers included President Biden, the mainstream media, the federal government and voting by mail. Most Democrats named Donald J. Trump, while large shares of the party’s voters also said the Supreme Court and the Electoral College were threats to democracy.
Seventy-one percent of all voters said democracy was at risk — but just 7 percent identified that as the most important problem facing the country.
These ostensibly conflicting views — that voters could be so deeply suspicious of one another and of the bedrock institutions of American democracy, while also expressing little urgency to address those concerns — may in part reflect longstanding frustrations and cynicism toward government.
ImageNewly printed mail-in ballots in Phoenix. Fifty-five percent of Republican voters called mail-in voting a major threat to democracy, the poll found.Credit…Rebecca Noble for The New York Times
Still, among voters who saw democracy as under threat, the vast majority, 81 percent, thought the country could fix the problem by using existing laws and institutions, rather than by going “outside the law,” according to the poll. Those who said violence would be necessary were a small minority.
“If we’re just talking about freedom, having freedom, and that we get to have a say in our choices, then I think we still have that,” said Audra Janes, 37, a Republican from Garnavillo, Iowa. She added, “I think that we need to stop trying to rewrite the Constitution and just reread it.”
The State of the 2022 Midterm Elections
With the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.
- The Final Stretch: With elections next month, a Times/Siena poll shows that independents, especially women, are swinging toward the G.O.P. despite Democrats’ focus on abortion rights as voters worry about the economy.
- Questioning 2020: Hundreds of Republicans on the ballot this November have cast doubt on the 2020 election, a Times analysis found. Many of these candidates are favored to win their races.
- Georgia Senate Race: The contest, which could determine whether Democrats keep control of the Senate, has become increasingly focused on the private life and alleged hypocrisy of Herschel Walker, the Republican nominee.
- Jill Biden: The first lady, who has become a lifeline for Democratic candidates trying to draw attention and money in the midterms, is the most popular surrogate in the Biden administration.
Overall, voters’ broader frustration with a political system that many view as dangerously divided and corrupt has left them pessimistic that the country is capable of coming together to solve its problems, no matter which party wins in November.
How nine voters characterized the threat to democracy
What one or two words do you think summarizes the current threat to democracy?
“Election deniers”
“Donald Trump”
Black man in New York,
Democrat
Age group: 45 to 64
White man in Louisiana,
Republican
Age group: 45 to 64
“Joe Biden”
“Inequality”
Black woman in Pennsylvania,
Democrat
Age group: 30 to 44
White woman in Utah,
Republican
Age group: 30 to 44
“The one percent,
a.k.a Wall Street
and hedge funds”
“General apathy”
White woman in Florida,
Independent
Age group: 18 to 29
Asian man in California,
Independent
Age group: 18 to 29
“Inflation and taxes”
“Our division”
Hispanic man in California,
Democrat
Age group: 18 to 29
White man in Missouri,
Independent
Age group: 30 to 44
“Putin and
the economy”
White woman in Oregon,
Republican
Age group: 65 and older
“Election deniers”
“Donald Trump”
“Inequality”
Black man in New York,
Democrat
Age group: 45 to 64
White man in Louisiana,
Republican
Age group: 45 to 64
Black woman in Pennsylvania,
Democrat
Age group: 30 to 44
“The one percent,
a.k.a. Wall Street
and hedge funds”
“Joe Biden”
“General apathy”
White woman in Utah,
Republican
Age group: 30 to 44
White woman in Florida,
Independent
Age group: 18 to 29
Asian man in California,
Independent
Age group: 18 to 29
“Putin and
the economy”
“Inflation and taxes”
“Our division”
Hispanic man in California,
Democrat
Age group: 18 to 29
White man in Missouri,
Independent
Age group: 30 to 44
White woman in Oregon,
Republican
Age group: 65 and older
Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 792 registered voters nationwide from Oct. 9 to 12, 2022. Responses have been chosen from a subset of voters who say democracy is under threat. White and Black voters include non-Hispanic respondents who report that they are of only one race. Hispanic voters are of any race.
By Ashley Wu
The poll’s findings reinforce the idea that for many Americans, this year’s midterm elections will be largely defined by rising inflation and other economic woes — leaving threats to the country’s democratic institutions lurking in the back of voters’ minds.
The deep distrust of elections, especially among Republicans, points to lingering fallout from the lies and conspiracy theories surrounding the 2020 election that have been fueled by Mr. Trump and his supporters.
How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.
Learn more about our process.
Seventy-one percent of Republicans said they would be comfortable voting for a candidate who thought that year’s election was stolen, as did 37 percent of independent voters and a notable 12 percent of Democrats.
Even among voters who think Mr. Biden won legitimately, 19 percent were comfortable casting a ballot for a candidate who believed the election was stolen. That number included 10 percent of Democrats, 22 percent of independents and 43 percent of Republicans who believed the 2020 election was fair.
Voters also signaled a bipartisan willingness to support a president who goes “outside of existing rules”: A third, including similar shares in both parties, said presidents should do what they think is best, even if it might flout the rules.
Twenty-six percent of voters said they had heard about “2000 Mules,” a widely debunked movie purporting to show that absentee ballots were “stuffed” in drop boxes to help Democrats in 2020. Of those who had heard about the film, 34 percent found it to be believable, and 45 percent said they did not know enough to say. Just 2 percent of Republicans who had heard about the movie found it not believable.
Only 4 percent of all voters said they found QAnon conspiracy theories, which make bizarre false claims about a satanic cult of Democrats, to be believable, but the vast majority of Republicans, 73 percent, said they did not know enough about the theories to say, rather than rejecting them outright.
ImageMail ballots being prepared in Phoenix. “I just don’t believe in the people who tally it,” one Republican voter said of election officials.Credit…Rebecca Noble for The New York Times
Days after early voting began, about four in 10 Republican voters said they did not trust that the 2022 results would be accurate — even though polls show their party is favored to win control of the House and could also take back the Senate.
Thirteen percent of Democrats and 26 percent of independents shared a similar mistrust of this year’s eventual results.
Republican voters’ suspicions about the electoral process were underscored by their deep mistrust of mail ballots. While 72 percent of Democrats and 48 percent of independents said voting by mail presented no threat at all to democracy, 55 percent of Republicans called the practice a major danger.
“I just don’t believe in the people who tally it,” Teresa Fogt, 61, a Republican from Sidney, Ohio, said of election officials, arguing that the 2020 election was rigged and that Democrats would try to steal other offices this year.
She added: “It’s hard for me to believe that more of America’s citizens would vote for Joe Biden than Donald Trump. Joe Biden is an idiot. I don’t know him personally, and he probably is a good person, but as a president, he’s an idiot.”
Democratic voters cited the economy and inflation as their top concerns, prioritizing them over democracy and other issues like abortion access. Some, however, viewed the problems as going hand in hand.
“What the issue is, where you’re seeing the anger, is the shrinkage of the middle class,” said Jeffrey Valfer, 49, a Democrat from Patchogue, N.Y. He added: “Once you delve into really addressing whatever we need to do to rebuild the middle class of this country, then that should fix a lot of the issues that you’re seeing. It should fix a lot of concerns about our democracy.”
Independent voters were far more worried about issues other than democracy, and some were willing to look past candidates’ election-denying stances if their views aligned on other policies.
“I don’t believe that their opinion on whether or not the election was quote unquote stolen is important,” said Michael Sprang, 47, a senior electronics technician and independent from Jackson, Mich. “I’m far more concerned about their stance on policies that actually matter.”
He added: “I’m more concerned about how you feel about the Second Amendment. How do you feel about the First Amendment? How do you feel about the state of the economy?”
The Times/Siena survey of 792 registered voters nationwide was conducted by telephone using live operators from Oct. 9 to Oct. 12, 2022. The margin of sampling error among registered voters is plus or minus 4.0 percentage points. The topline is available here, and the cross-tabs and methodology are available here.
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Source: nytimes.com
