Dear readers,
Welcome to EU Politics Decoded where Benjamin Fox and Eleonora Vasques will bring you a round-up of the latest political news in Europe and beyond every Thursday.
In this edition, as the Party of European Socialists gathers in Berlin we ask what the left needs to do to break out of its slow decline at the ballot box. Click here to subscribe.
Editor’s Take:
Discourse has moved to the left, but socialists keep on losing
European Socialist parties should be heading to their annual congress in Berlin on Thursday with a spring in their step.
Public debt and deficits are high but in marked contrast to the response to the 2008-9 crash, state intervention in the economy – on a vast scale – is accepted across the bloc as the correct response to the pandemic and now the cost of living crisis resulting from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
If this isn’t a moment for a revival by socialists and social democrats, what is?
Still, most of the delegates in Berlin won’t be overly cheery. Why? Because across most of the bloc, the moderate left keeps losing.
The challenge they face is simple: the normalisation of the far right in many EU countries (Sweden and Italy being the most recent examples of a long-running trend) and their alignment with conservatives, even cross-border.
The rise of this new right – as we discussed last week – is driving a new polarisation in the spectrum. Increasingly, we no longer talk of the right versus the left, but instead, conservative against progressive forces. This battlefield has been defined by those leading the polls.
On the one hand, the new right is clearly communicating their idea of the world and values – where history is basically going – where the EU is essentially intergovernmental and the national state is the bedrock of security.
On the other, the main area where the left distinguishes itself from the others is by being progressive on civil and social rights, without offering a ‘big picture’ view on how to rethink the economy or social policy, particularly at the continental level.
The result is that ten years after the financial crisis, most socialist parties are still in a crisis of identity combined with uninspired leadership. In Germany, Italy, and the UK, they are offering little more than managerial competence. That might be enough to win one election, but no more.
In the meantime, the political landscape is fertile for EU-wide economic and social policies.
The success of the €750 billion recovery fund is a shining example, taking some of the heat off national treasuries following the pandemic. There are strong arguments to expand the fund to help cover the costs of subsidising rocketing energy bills.
Yet there is resistance, primarily from Germany, where Chancellor Olaf Scholz proposed a €65 billion domestic plan in September to tackle inflation.
Taken on its own, it could be described as a ‘left-wing’ policy. However, by not looking for a more ambitious EU approach to the cost of living crisis, socialist governments and parties seem to be missing a golden opportunity.
Only three years ago, the prospect of a fund of this size, funded by European Commission borrowing, to pay for economic stimulus measures would have been unthinkable.
However, the political response to the COVID pandemic and now the cost of living crisis, which has been to provide huge economic support packages for businesses and individuals, has changed all that.
Citizens now expect that governments will support them through these tough times.
Conservative parties are doing one of the things they do best: working on re-defining themselves and adapting to those circumstances, accepting money from the recovery plan and adopting a narrative of unity and solidarity.
The war in Ukraine is entrenching the idea that Europeans are more open to a narrative of unity and solidarity. That should be an open goal for socialists and social democrats. If they miss it, their slow decline will continue.
Charts of the week
The two charts below show how left-wing parties in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Poland performed in the elections between 1990 and now. Of note is also the sharp decrease in popularity for the left after the 2008-2009 financial crisis.
Data visualisation by Europe Elects for EURACTIV
Who’s electioneering?
It’s all relatively quiet on the election front in Europe for the rest of this year. However, in Denmark, early opinion polls project that the centre-left ‘red bloc’ coalition will win 88 of the 179 seats in parliament, a boost for Social Democrat Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. The opposing ‘blue bloc’ has 81 seats.
Across the Atlantic, meanwhile, we are four weeks from the mid-term elections to the US Congress.
Polls have shifted slightly towards President Joe Biden’s Democrats since the right-wing majority on the US Supreme Court’s decision to reverse the landmark Roe vs Wade judgement, though the Republicans are still forecast to win a narrow majority in the House of Representatives.
Capitals-in-brief
Berlin under pressure over extending EU fund
Pressure is mounting on Germany over its refusal to consider new EU-level financial instruments on joint borrowing to tackle the inflation and broader economic crisis, with Spain warning that it risks jeopardising the single market.
Italy, France, and Spain are among those unhappy with Germany’s stance on joint measures. They would like to expand the EU’s €750 billion recovery fund in order to allow governments to increase subsidies for rising heating bills.
Orbán: No war if Merkel was in charge
Hungary’s Viktor Orbán argues that Russia’s war against Ukraine would not have happened if Angela Merkel was still Germany’s Chancellor, telling an event in Berlin that Merkel’s reaction to the 2014 crisis triggered by Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea was “a master stroke,” and prevented a war breaking out then
Asked whether this means the current war would have been prevented if Merkel was still in charge, Orbán said: “For certain.”
Inside the institutions
Only bricks and mortar?
Despite the looming recession and acute cost of living crisis across Europe, the European Parliament is moving ahead with plans for an overhaul of its main premises in Brussels at a potential cost of over €500 million. It is “the worst possible timing”, says a Socialist group MEP on the Budget Committee.
MEPs back Brexit sanctions regime
EU and UK officials have resumed talks and optimism is in the air about the prospect of an agreement, finally, on the implementation of the Northern Ireland protocol.
However, the EU is not taking anything on trust. Earlier this week, MEPs backed legislation that would allow the European Commission to impose sanctions on the UK should it breach the terms of its Withdrawal Agreement and trade pact. MEPs also want to have oversight of the process.
What we are reading
Andrew Marr looks at the demise of Brexit’s architects, while Jeremy Warner describes the gloom facing the West’s economic prospects .
The next week in politics
The rule of law in Malta five years after the murder of investigative journalist Daphne Caruana Galizia, and the potential introduction of an EU windfall tax to curb heating bill hikes will top the agenda for EU lawmakers at next week’s plenary session in Strasbourg. The bloc’s budget for 2023 will also be finalised.
The Sakharov prize for freedom of thought will be decided by European Parliament leaders on 19 October.
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Source: euractiv.com
