In 2018, 54.2% of Italians voted for anti-European political forces, while in 2022, only 36.8%. But the political offer does not reflect this change, with a nationalist government the likely result of Sunday’s general elections.
In 2018, most Italians voted for parties with an ambiguous or explicitly anti-European stance. The Five Star Movement (M5S) scored 32.4%, the Lega party 17.5% and Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia (FdI) 4.3%. In total, the anti-EU vote amounted to 54.2% of ballots cast.
The 2018 legislature began with a strongly anti-European M5S-Lega ‘Conte I’ government, which brought a flight of capital, an increase in bond yield spreads and eventually collapsed. The ‘Conte II’ government marked the pro-European turn of the M5S. The following Draghi government was strongly pro-European and Atlanticist.
In this year’s elections, support for parties opposing further European integration decreased to 36.8%: FdI 26%, Lega 8.9%, Italexit 1.9% (no MP below 3% threshold). The bloc’s COVID recovery fund, the Next Generation EU, shifted public opinion and some parties in favour of Brussels.
But a new electoral law and a united right-wing front against several pro-European parties running separately led to a clear victory for the right. A coalition in which Berlusconi’s Forza Italia’s (FI) pro-European line, albeit in the minority, could matter since there would be no parliamentary majority without the party’s support.
This shift in voters’ EU preferences may impact the choices of the next government and the parties.
Salvini could be replaced by a new leader focused on northern Italy and a pro-European line to bring Lega closer to the centre-right European People’s Party, also given a possible merger with Forza Italia to partially rebalance the coalition. Left-of-centre, in the Partito Democratico (PD), a new leadership could emerge in favour of an agreement with the M5S or alternatively with the Third Pole to create a competitive coalition.
The right-wing coalition won a clear parliament majority and could quickly form a government. If a respected technocrat will be treasury minister and centre-right Forza Italia representatives take over foreign affairs and European policies ministries, and the budget will comply with European rules, all this could signal appeasement of the EU.
Giorgia Meloni will most probably be the first woman Italian prime minister, this historical fact may provide her with a political credit line initially. The experience of the last Italian legislature may have convinced her that Italy cannot be governed against the EU.
Source: euractiv.com
