Candidates in the French presidential elections seem to have already accepted defeat as French President Emmanuel Macron, who recently announced his candidacy, is leading in the polls, following the breakout of war in Ukraine. EURACTIV France reports.
Although there are still a few weeks before the first round of the presidential elections on 4 April, Macron’s opponents are now looking to the legislative elections in June.
While some are aiming to lead the opposition, others are simply trying to survive.
Though four candidates could narrowly make it to the second round, the gap has widened in the past ten days, somewhat crushing the hopes of Macron’s competition.
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Ukraine dominating the discussion
The war in Ukraine has dominated news cycles for two weeks now. However, even before the conflict broke out, Macron’s international agenda was laying the groundwork for a presidential campaign, despite it not being officially announced at that point.
The current situation has put energy, purchasing power and Europe at the centre stage of the election debate, meaning those who had not positioned themselves on such topics are now paying the price – and other classic themes are fading to the sidelines.
“The war in Ukraine is crushing everything,” right-wing candidate Valérie Pécresse of Les Républicains told broadcaster BFMTV on Wednesday morning (9 March). She said that the increasing number of people turning towards the president because of the situation is concerning.
Far-right candidate Éric Zemmour, who said that the whole country “is waiting for [a] face-to-face meeting” between him and Macron, has suffered a drop in voting intentions due to his accommodating stance towards Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Moreover, Zemmour’s campaign focuses solely on identity, whereas his competitors have given a more general vision of the concerns of the French.
Second round
The four candidates who – according to the most recent polls – could make it to the second round, are struggling against the tide of support for the outgoing president.
The stakes for the candidates are high, both financially and in terms of the survival of their parties.
In addition to a higher reimbursement of campaign expenses for the two finalists in the presidential election, this success consolidates their party’s political survival, allowing the candidates to position themselves as natural opponents beyond the final election result.
Between the two competing far-right parties, the lack of leadership on the left and the break-up of the traditional right, the political landscape following the election is likely to be even more fragmented than now.
Legislative elections
Almost all parties are now looking to the legislative elections in June in the hope of turning the tables.
Active members of the campaigns of Green candidate Yannick Jadot and Pécresse told EURACTIV France that the presidential election was considered lost and that the goal was now to “save the furniture” in the legislative elections.
With regard to radical left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon of La France Insoumise and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen of Rassemblement National, a good result in the legislative elections would allow them to strengthen their groups, already present in the National Assembly. It would also permit them to gain the upper hand in their respective camps, the radical left and the national-sovereignists.
As for Zemmour, “successful” legislative elections would give substance to the political project of a liberal and identitarian line of the extreme right and would allow him to work towards reshaping the right, of which he dreams so much.
The Greens and the Communists, for their part, hope to gain seats in the parliament so as to inject their favourite themes into the public debate throughout the next five years, and beyond. If many Greens are elected in the legislative elections, they could take the lead of the centre-left, particularly if the Socialists (PS) were to perform poorly.
Participating in a future government is also something Jadot’s teams are looking into, especially if Macron or Mélechon were to be elected in April. When EURACTIV France asked Jadot about this in February, he ruled out a government with Pécresse but dodged the question when asked about Macron’s presidential majority.
The right, trapped in an eternal struggle between the far–right and the centre, is at risk of disintegrating the most with its talent possibly joining the camps of Macron and Zemmour.
The campaign for the legislative elections could thus become more important than ever as it could reshape the country’s political landscape in a lasting way and even influence political life for the next few years, or even decades.
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[Edited by Alice Taylor and Nathalie Weatherald]
Source: euractiv.com
