Russian dictator Putin is hoping for a winter offensive against Ukraine, experts say, as the country's economy is in dire straits. The war-mongering leader is becoming increasingly desperate, according to Maria Snegova, a senior fellow in the Europe, Russia and Eurasia program at the CSIS think tank, the New York Post reports.
VIDEO OF THE DAY
“Putin will again wait for winter to resume large-scale strikes and create a humanitarian crisis in Ukraine in order to obtain concessions on the Donbas issue,” said Snegova.
Experts say the strikes will be even more extensive than last winter, when Russia launched a record number of drones and missiles at critical civilian infrastructure every day. It is also likely to expand its attacks targeting Ukrainian railways to disrupt supply lines and attack water infrastructure, added Kateryna Stepanenko, head of the Russian group and deputy director of the cognitive warfare project at the Institute for the Study of War think tank.
Snegova, who was in Ukraine last month, said the harsh winter is still a major concern for the average Ukrainian — and Putin is likely to exploit the horror in a desperate bid to get out of the current situation. Putin is facing growing pressure at home from a slumping economy and internet outages that experts say could be a prelude to panic-stricken Kremlin action.
ADVERTISING
According to the Russian Finance Ministry, Moscow's federal budget deficit in the first five months of the year rose to $81.4 billion, more than double the same period last year. The country's budget spending also rose by 17%, while oil and natural gas revenues fell by almost 30%. According to the Central Bank of Russia, Moscow's gold reserves also fell by 5.7 tons in April, the biggest drop in a quarter of a century.
“Russia’s gold reserves are depleting, the civilian market is experiencing a labor shortage, and the economy has taken a significant hit,” Stepanenko said.
Economic problems have affected recruitment levels in Russia, which fell to about 30,000 per month in May — less than the number of casualties suffered by the Russian Federation in the same month.
ADVERTISING
The sharp drop in recruitment has reportedly prompted the Kremlin to target university students to sign up for the war, even offering to waive tuition fees and erase bad grades for those who do. The country's prisons have already been raided to recruit convicts, including serial killers.
The Kremlin has reportedly set a 2% quota for male students to be recruited in April. Leaked videos on social media of professors and military officials trying to recruit students show the desperation.
Meanwhile, Stepanenko noted that Russia is already offering new recruits loans worth about $140,000, which will only worsen the country's dire economic prospects.
“Putin faces a difficult decision on recruitment, as he seems hesitant to take significant measures on political and economic costs,” Stepanenko said. “Many of these problems are finally catching up with Putin.”
ADVERTISING
Previously, the Institute for the Study of War revealed the reasons behind the Russian President's reluctance to end the war in Ukraine.