GFL is considering purchasing Secure Waste for over $4.3 billion: The Canadian disposal market approaches significant unification
The prospective agreement between GFL Environmental and Secure Waste Infrastructure is estimated to be worth in excess of $4.3 billion and, should it materialize, would stand out as one of the more substantial mergers and acquisitions within the North American disposal sector in recent times.
GFL Environmental, based in Canada, is nearing an arrangement to acquire Secure Waste Infrastructure in a transaction pegged at greater than $4.3 billion. According to Bloomberg, as reported by Reuters, the envisioned structure encompasses roughly 20% cash and 80% in shares, and the price might reach about $17.7 per share, implying a premium of approximately 15% over Secure’s most recent closing value. Simultaneously, Reuters mentions its inability to independently verify this information, and neither entity has formally commented on the report.
From an investor perspective, this appears as GFL’s wager not solely on magnitude, but also on a waste infrastructure enterprise boasting considerable hurdles to market entry. Secure runs a network of facilities for recycling, reclamation, and disposal across Western Canada and North Dakota, and the corporation itself highlights its possession of over 80 strategically positioned sites. Its waste business accounts for around 75% of EBITDA, with assets primarily geared towards managing waste originating from energy and industrial operations.
From a financial standpoint, Secure enters this possible transaction in a robust state. The company produced roughly $361 million in adjusted EBITDA in 2025, channeled approximately $269 million back to stakeholders via dividends and buybacks, and projects $375-397 million in EBITDA for 2026. The net debt situation also seems manageable, exhibiting a total debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.1x by the close of 2025. Assuming a deal valuation topping $4.3 billion, this equates to a multiple of around 11x the projected 2026 EBITDA.
For GFL, this prospective acquisition represents a rational advancement of an already underway mergers and acquisitions approach. The firm divested its environmental services division in 2025 for nearly $5.77 billion, holding on to approximately $1.23 billion in equity, and indicated its intention to allocate up to $2.70 billion of the net proceeds to reduce obligations and as much as $1.62 billion toward repurchasing shares. Following this, GFL effectively resumed proactive consolidation of the central waste sector: on April 1, it finalized the takeover of Frontier Waste Solutions in Texas, also declaring that, when combined with seven additional tuck-in acquisitions, this year’s agreements ought to contribute $307-325 million in annual revenue.
GFL similarly possesses the bedrock for a substantial novel arrangement. During 2025, the organization generated roughly $4.77 billion in revenue and $1.43 billion in adjusted EBITDA, while forecasting approximately $5.05 billion in revenue and $1.54 billion in adjusted EBITDA for 2026, a projection that excluded any input from fresh mergers and acquisitions. Consequently, the potential purchase of Secure appears as a transformative transaction: it has the capacity to furnish GFL with a new foothold in industrial waste and infrastructure tied to energy, thereby enhancing its established municipal and commercial operations.
On a broader level, the prospective takeover of Secure illustrates the increasing perception of waste management as an infrastructure enterprise characterized by dependable cash flow, rather than merely an industry providing services. Should the agreement proceed, GFL would essentially convert its portfolio restructuring from last year into another prominent cycle of consolidation, this time involving assets distinguished by extended lifespans, regulatory obstacles, and a connection to consistent flows from energy and industrial sources.