Estonia is preparing to become the first test for NATO in the event of new Russian aggression. What is happening on the Estonian-Russian border and why the world’s attention is focused on this small state right now. Highlights from the material by The Economist
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In a new era of American caution, Estonia may be the place where NATO’s ability to implement
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The countries were occupied by
A banner with an image of Vladimir Putin and the words “War criminal!” on the wall of a museum in Narva. Photo by Getty Images
Estonians remember the Soviet occupation, which began in 1940, lasted until the German invasion in 1941, and resumed in 1944, as a time of terror and deportation. At least 10% of the country’s population died or were deported to Siberia during and after the war. To many, the temporary German occupation that followed
The border between Russia and Estonia near the city of Narva. Photo by Getty Images
The fight against Russian propaganda
Since the war in Ukraine, Russia’s attempts to destabilize Estonia have only intensified. Last year, it was revealed that a supposedly liberal sociology professor was actually a Kremlin agent. In 2023, the cars of the Estonian Minister of the Interior and the editor of the Russian-language news website Delfi Narva were damaged.
“We manage to stop most of the attacks,” says Harris Puusepp, one of the heads of the Estonian counterintelligence department KAPO. The investigation into the car attacks led to the arrest of ten people. These suspects were only the final link in a long chain and probably did not even know that Russia was behind them, Puusepp adds.
Putin has used rhetoric about alleged oppression of Russian-speaking people in eastern Ukraine as a pretext for invading the country. So far, attempts to stir up similar sentiment among Russians in Estonia have failed, writes The Economist.
Now, political forces with “peaceful” or pro-Russian rhetoric remain marginal. The most prominent Putin apologist in Estonia, Ivo Peterson, won only 11,000 votes in the last European Parliament elections. At the same time, he was under arrest on charges of treason. But the Kremlin’s attempts to recruit Russian-speakers for petty sabotage via social media have been largely unsuccessful. In part because the government has made it clear that Russian citizens associated with the Kremlin’s security forces will be deported, says Puusepp. Part of the containment strategy has been the publication of pro-Russian posts on social media and photos of those who have been deported from Russian training camps.
Russian propaganda, which emphasizes the “glorious victory over fascism” during World War II, has failed to inspire the youth of the Russian-speaking community, comments The Economist. Their parents and grandparents are much more likely to feel nostalgia for the Soviet Union. However, the hidden threat remains. “This does not mean that we do not have Putin supporters at all,” says Puusepp. “But they are not organized in such a way that you can talk about a fifth column.”
NATO is strengthening its presence in Estonia, deploying more than 2,000 troops.
Separate Russia from Estonia
After independence, only descendants of those who had it as of 1940 received automatic citizenship in Estonia. Russians, Russian-speakers and their descendants must take a language exam to obtain citizenship of the country. Those who fail the test are issued “gray passports” – stateless persons’ certificates. Their holders are not allowed to work in the EU without permission, vote in national elections or hold public office. About 80,000 Russians still have “red passports”, i.e. citizenship only of Russia, writes The Economist.
The separation of the two communities of Russians and Estonians Estonia has been strengthening its education system for many years. Before the reform, which came into effect in 2024, schools taught in either Russian or Estonian, although knowledge of Estonian is required for admission to universities and work in government institutions.
Estonian, a language closely related to Finnish, is notoriously difficult – it has 14 cases. Formally, school graduates who pass an Estonian exam can apply for citizenship. However, language test results still reflect social hierarchies: people describe each other as “C1” or “B2” depending on their level of Estonian.
“There is a large and obvious inequality between the Russian-speaking and Estonian-speaking communities – in social capital, salaries, education,” admits Tallinn Mayor Yevgeny Osinovsky, who grew up in a Russian-speaking family. The communication barrier is often more important than the language barrier, he says, adding: “If you don’t have contact with another language group, it leads to a lack of trust and differences in basic values.”
Since 2022, the Estonian government has been gradually distancing the country from Russia. Visas for Russian citizens have been suspended, Russian businesses have been restricted, Russian TV channels have been banned, and Soviet monuments have been demolished. In 2025, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania disconnected their electricity grids from the Russian system.
The Estonian parliament is considering a bill to remove Russian Orthodox churches in the country from the jurisdiction of the Moscow Patriarchate. Schools are to switch to Estonian as the language of instruction by 2030, but the city of Narva lacks Estonian teachers to do so. The most notable and controversial change: residents with Russian passports will no longer be able to vote in local elections after the 2025 campaign.
The war in Ukraine has united Estonians, but divided Russians in the country. Some feel the burden of sympathy for Russia, where their relatives remained, others are outraged by Estonian nationalism, some defend Putin or dream of the brotherhood of peoples, as in the old days, writes The Economist. Younger people mostly openly accept Ukrainian refugees, many of whom speak Russian. There is no strict link between passport and ideology: Russians came to Estonia to escape Putin’s repression.
But a certain hidden loyalty to Russia remains in the Russian community. Pro-Putin and anti-European sentiments mostly remain on social media or “in the kitchen.”
People gather on the embankment between Hermana Castle and the Narva River to commemorate May 9 during the Europe Day celebrations in Estonia, May 9, 2025. Photo by Getty Images
Defending the future and strengthening NATO
The Finns, the Estonians’ neighbors to the north, are an example of how a smaller country can resist a much stronger aggressor. Finland survived the Winter War of 1939–1940 against the USSR, maintaining its independence despite the loss of territory. Since then, Finland has spent decades building a network of bomb shelters for its population. Estonians look at them with sadness. “People are worried, especially the elderly. They often ask: ‘Where is the shelter?’ We are speeding up the preparation of a civil defense plan,” says Tallinn Mayor Yevgeny Osinovsky. The state is installing generators and determining which supermarkets and gas stations will operate as crisis centers.
Four years ago, discussions about increasing the defense budget were lively. Now politicians are united. This year, Estonia announced an increase in defense spending to 5.4% of GDP – more than even NATO requires. A new Alliance base is being built in the country, and Estonian troops are being deployed in Narva for the first time. The construction of a plant for the production of military explosives from oil shale has also been announced.
Putin claims that the invasion of Ukraine is “defense against NATO.” But this aggression has only strengthened the Alliance. Sweden and Finland, neutral during the Cold War, have rushed to join NATO. At the same time, the administration of US President Donald Trump is threatening to withdraw from NATO. “Of course, we rely on allies. We believe in NATO,” says Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur.