As speculation mounts over possible negotiations to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it is important to understand the nature of the war Vladimir Putin unleashed nearly three years ago. Crucially, this is no ordinary war over land that can be resolved by offering limited territorial concessions. Putin’s aims are far more ambitious. He is waging this war to undermine the existing international security architecture and replace it with a new world order in which a handful of great powers are able to dominate their neighbors.
Since launching his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Putin has repeatedly laid out his vision of a “multipolar world order” that would reverse the Cold War verdict and create a world divided into spheres of influence. By challenging the sanctity of borders with his invasion of Ukraine, Putin seeks to remove a central pillar of today’s global security system and normalize the use of military force in international affairs. If his efforts are perceived as successful, it will set a disastrous precedent that will embolden authoritarian regimes around the world.
Putin’s dream of a new world order is reflected in his desire for bilateral talks with the United States to discuss the fate of Ukraine and Europe without Ukrainian or European participation. He wants to demonstrate that sovereignty is negotiable and to convey the message that some nations are more equal than others. The consequences of such an approach could be disastrous for both Ukraine and Europe as a whole.
The world order Putin hopes to establish will be governed by the laws of the geopolitical jungle and defined by uncertainty and aggression. Armed conflicts will spread across the globe as previously accepted rules of international relations are replaced by the primacy of “might makes right.” The unprecedented global economic prosperity of the past three decades will also be threatened by rising barriers to trade and record levels of defense spending. The only obvious beneficiaries will be countries like Russia that seek to embrace revisionist or expansionist agendas.
The international security situation is now so serious and has escalated to such a level that it can no longer be resolved by appeasing Russia or seeking some kind of compromise peace. Instead, Russia must lose in Ukraine and be seen to lose.
This is not the case at the moment. On the contrary, Putin is more confident than ever of victory and sees no reason to stop the war. He is projecting power around the world and has successfully built a coalition of authoritarian powers, including China, Iran, and North Korea, all of whom support the war in Ukraine and share Moscow’s goal of overthrowing the existing world order.
On the domestic front, Putin has managed to put the Russian economy on a war footing and find new partners to compensate for the collapse of relations with the West. He is openly preparing for a long war and is counting on the West's lack of resolve to confront him.
To stop the war, Putin must be convinced that continuing to invade Ukraine would be disastrous for Russia. This requires a set of measures designed to weaken Russia's position both economically and militarily.
Russia’s economic prospects are already being damaged by the war and could become much worse if Western leaders take the necessary steps. There is a clear need for greater coordination between the United States, Britain, the EU and other countries involved in sanctioning Russia’s war effort. Enforcement of existing sanctions remains inadequate, while tougher measures are needed to prosecute proxies.
Economic hardship alone will not force Putin to the negotiating table. He must also be forced to face the prospect of military defeat. This will require a major change in thinking among Ukraine’s partners. Ukraine is currently locked into a defensive war of attrition, with the goal of inflicting unacceptable losses on the invading Russians. However, Putin clearly has a very high tolerance for losses and can also call upon vast untapped reserves of manpower to replenish the depleted ranks of his army. If the current war of attrition continues, Russia will eventually and inevitably win.
Instead, Ukraine must be equipped to defeat Russia on the battlefield. Ukraine’s military has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to defeat Russia, but it currently lacks the military capability to turn local victories into a winning position in war. This must change.
Western fears of escalation mean that Kyiv continues to be denied a wide range of weapons and faces limitations in its ability to defend itself. As a result of this overly cautious approach, the Kremlin can wage an all-out war against Ukraine without fear of major counterattacks inside Russia. Putin also enjoys an overwhelming advantage in firepower, including a much larger and more advanced air force. No NATO member state would even consider waging a war without adequate air power, but that is what Ukraine is now expected to do.
Until now, the West has armed Ukraine to survive. Putin will not stop invading until he is convinced that Western leaders are determined to arm Ukraine to win. Ukraine’s military needs are well known. What is missing is the necessary political will to act. That means fighter jets, long-range missiles, armored vehicles, and artillery in large quantities, as well as vastly improved drone and electronic warfare capabilities.
By providing Ukraine with sufficient military aid, the West could finally force Putin to rethink the current war, and create a powerful deterrent that could prevent further Russian aggression. Anything less would simply create a lull in the fighting that Putin would use to rearm and prepare for the next phase of his war against the West. The cost of stopping Russia in Ukraine is high, but it would be dwarfed by the cost of a new authoritarian world order if Putin were allowed to invade.
Andriy Zagorodnyuk is the Chairman of the Center for Defense Strategies and an adviser to the Government of Ukraine. He previously served as the Minister of Defense of Ukraine (2019–2020).
Source: Source
