Over the past three years, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has served to highlight the geopolitical impact of energy and infrastructure exports. While Europe has responded to the invasion by seeking to radically reduce its energy dependence on Russia, Moscow remains a significant supplier and continues to demonstrate a willingness to exploit that status for political gain.
Russia’s intervention has highlighted the need for Europe to pursue greater energy flexibility and connectivity. With sufficient support from the country’s European partners, Ukraine could potentially make an important contribution to achieving these goals, particularly through the Three Seas Initiative, a political, infrastructure and commercially oriented platform to improve connectivity between the Baltic, Adriatic and Black Seas.
Europe’s energy ecosystem is currently undergoing major changes. In early 2025, decades of Russian gas transit through Ukraine came to an end after Kyiv decided not to renew an expiring five-year agreement with the Kremlin’s flagship energy company Gazprom. The loss of gas transit through Ukraine has had a negative impact on the Russian economy at a time when Moscow’s gas export volumes were already well below pre-war levels.
So far, the halt in gas supplies through Ukraine's pipeline system has not led to a sharp rise in gas prices for European consumers. However, Kyiv's decision to stop transit has caused significant tensions with some of the country's neighbors.
Slovakia and Hungary are heavily dependent on Russian gas supplies and have expressed their dissatisfaction with Ukraine’s stance. Both countries were warned in advance of the upcoming cut-off in transit supplies, but chose not to take action. In contrast, Austrian energy giant OMV has used the last two years to prepare for potential supply disruptions and has thus proven much more resilient, despite being even more dependent on Russian gas at the start of the invasion.
Since 2022, Ukraine's efforts to limit Russian influence in the energy sector have continued despite the war conditions in the country. This includes disconnecting the national energy system from the Russian system and joining the European ENTSO-E network.
This historic move gave Ukraine more options in the energy sector and helped the country cope with the problems caused by frequent Russian attacks on the Ukrainian power grid. Ukraine benefited from improved connections to the European grid, allowing it to import more electricity from neighboring EU countries and export it in the opposite direction during periods of excess power.
Kyiv has also succeeded in gaining access to new energy sources. Following the intense Russian bombing of Ukrainian power plants in the spring of 2024, Ukraine was able to receive LNG from the United States via Greece for the first time. A number of European countries, including Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Moldova, Slovakia, and Ukraine, are now seeking to create a vertical gas corridor to facilitate bidirectional gas flows between the Greek LNG terminal and Ukraine.
While there are positive signs that Europe is responding constructively to recent developments in the energy sector, it is clear that more infrastructure innovation, flexibility and connectivity are needed to prepare for possible future crises and to cope with the emergence of new energy sources. For example, the development of green energy requires the right mix of baseload supply options to avoid imbalances and blackouts. This will require a more comprehensive approach to European energy security and efficiency.
In the coming years, Ukraine could play a key role in efforts to improve European energy security and connectivity. The country is believed to have the second-largest gas reserves in Europe. It also has the continent’s largest gas storage facilities and an extensive pipeline system for oil and gas transit. To make the most of this potential, Ukraine should seek to create multifunctional energy production and transportation hubs that can integrate with global LNG, hydrogen, and green ammonia infrastructure.
Improving the connectivity between Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and the European Union, the United Kingdom and the United States would enhance overall energy security and significantly strengthen the European energy system. It goes without saying that this requires security and an end to hostilities in Ukraine. Many of the benefits that a more integrated Ukraine could offer would depend on safe passage for ships to the country’s Black Sea ports, for example, while Russia has repeatedly targeted Ukrainian gas storage facilities in the west of the country.
For now, the ongoing Russian invasion places serious constraints on Ukraine’s ability to contribute to improving Europe’s energy flexibility and connectivity. However, the country’s enormous potential should be considered as European leaders prepare for the post-war period and explore options for strengthening the continent’s long-term energy resilience.
Natalia Katser-Buchkovska is the founder of the Green Resilience Facility and a former member of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine (2014–2019).
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