As speculation mounts about a possible deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine, most predictions currently assume that Moscow will retain the Ukrainian territory currently under Kremlin control. That would mean condemning millions of Ukrainian civilians to the horrors of indefinite Russian occupation. Crucially, it would also mark a new stage in the shadow war waged by Ukraine’s vast resistance movement across Russia-occupied regions of the country.
The Ukrainian resistance movement has evolved significantly in the eleven years since the start of Russian military aggression against the country, with a sharp escalation following the launch of a full-scale invasion in February 2022. A vast network of civil resistance activists, guerrillas, and military special forces units now operate throughout Russian-occupied Ukraine, conducting everything from information campaigns to sabotage operations. The resistance movement’s goals include demoralizing the occupation authorities, disrupting the logistics of the Russian invasion force, destroying Russian troops and equipment, and providing vital intelligence to the Ukrainian military.
Geographically, Ukraine’s resistance movement is active in all of the country’s occupied regions, from Crimea in the south to Luhansk on Ukraine’s eastern border with Russia. Despite Russia’s harsh countermeasures and the Kremlin’s climate of fear throughout the occupied regions, Ukraine’s resistance network remains active and expanding, according to officials in the Ukrainian military tasked with overseeing many of the operations behind enemy lines.
While the exact structure of the resistance movement in Ukraine is shrouded in mystery, the country's resistance efforts can be divided into three main categories: civil resistance, guerrilla warfare, and covert military operations.
The Yellow Ribbon movement and the Zla Mavka resistance group are two prominent examples of Ukrainian civil resistance in action. The Yellow Ribbon movement first emerged in the early months of the full-scale invasion in the spring of 2022. As its name suggests, it allows activists to demonstrate their opposition to the Russian occupation by leaving yellow ribbons in public places or painting other symbols associated with the movement. Activists have also engaged in a wide range of information operations aimed at intimidating Russian troops or raising the spirit of fellow Ukrainians living under Russian occupation.
The all-female group Zla Mavka takes its name from a traditional forest spirit in Ukrainian folklore who is famous for luring unsuspecting men to their deaths. Members of the loosely knit group are known for their use of satire and creative mockery in an effort to boost Ukrainian morale and undermine the legitimacy of Russian occupation forces.
A number of guerrilla groups are now engaged in more direct acts of resistance, including intelligence gathering, sabotage operations, and armed attacks against Russian forces in occupied Ukraine. One prominent example is Atesh, a guerrilla group that was founded in September 2022 in Russian-occupied Crimea but claims to have carried out attacks throughout occupied Ukraine.
The name Atesh comes from the Crimean Tatar word for “fire,” reflecting the group’s strong ties to the Crimean Tatar community. In a July 2023 interview, Crimean Tatar community leader Mustafa Dzhemilev said Atesh may operate “very deep underground” to avoid detection, but claimed it could form the basis of a much larger guerrilla force in Crimea if Ukrainian forces are able to advance toward the peninsula.
Numerous other guerrilla groups operate across Russian-occupied Ukraine, often focusing on a particular city or region. These include the People’s Resistance of Ukraine, an umbrella organization that claims to have carried out dozens of operations in occupied eastern Ukraine. Another example is the Berdyansk Partisan Army, which operates in and around the port city of Berdyansk in the Zaporizhia region of southern Ukraine.
Unsurprisingly, the main source of resistance activity in Russian-occupied Ukraine is the Ukrainian military. Ukraine first created a covert resistance force back in 2014, during the early stages of Russia’s invasion. In 2021, it was formally established as a unit within Ukraine’s Special Operations Forces. Known as Rukh Oporu (Resistance Movement), it currently engages in a wide range of support functions that include training, supplying, and funding activists and guerrilla groups, as well as conducting its own large-scale operations against Russian occupation forces. These actions are believed to include assassinations of Russian officials and collaborators.
In addition to Rukh Oporu, the SBU (State Security Service) and HUR (Military Intelligence Directorate) of Ukraine are also considered to be actively involved in military operations behind enemy lines. This includes operations in Russian-occupied territory inside Ukraine and across the border into Russia itself.
It is difficult to assess the overall impact that resistance activity has had on morale within the ranks of the occupying Russian forces or among local collaborators. At the same time, numerous specific attacks on officials, soldiers, equipment, and infrastructure have been confirmed by multiple sources. Resistance groups also support the Ukrainian army with critical intelligence on everything from Russian troop movements to the deployment of air defense batteries. This has enabled a large number of precision strikes against high-value targets and has also proven essential to major operations such as Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive in September 2022 in the Kharkiv region.
Ukraine’s efforts to resist Russian occupation have become markedly more sophisticated over the past three years and are unlikely to end anytime soon. If negotiations advance in the coming months and a compromise peace agreement begins to take shape that allows Russia to retain control over the currently occupied regions of Ukraine, the question of the Ukrainian resistance’s future operations is likely to become a hotly contested issue, as Moscow seeks assurances that Kyiv will be unwilling to provide.
Omar Ashour is Professor of Security and Military Studies at the Doha Graduate Institute in Qatar. He is an Emeritus Professor at the Institute for Security and Strategy at the University of Exeter in the UK and an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Ilko Kucheriv Foundation for Democratic Initiatives in Ukraine.
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