The CDU/CSU bloc led by Friedrich Merz has won the snap parliamentary elections in Germany. Merz is a likely candidate for the position of chancellor. This comes at a time of political and economic turbulence in Germany: growing support for the far right, stagnant economy, tense relations with the US and war in Ukraine. What does this mean for Ukraine and Europe? Forbes Ukraine publishes the main points from the analysis of the FT, Politico, Reuters and The Guardian.
A gift for true leaders
Forbes Certificate — annual access to quality analytics, insights, and thought-provoking success stories. Details and order
Friedrich Merz, 69, is a German politician who has long been in Angela Merkel's shadow. A former banker with no experience in government, he became leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) after the party lost power in 2021. His political rhetoric is marked by toughness and pragmatism. Merz wants to radically tighten immigration controls and overhaul Germany's economic model.
“It’s not just a question of money – it’s a question of leadership,” he said during the campaign. Merz also wants to distance himself from the policies of Olaf Scholz and Angela Merkel, whom he criticized for being too soft on Russia and having a chaotic migration policy. It was this toughness that helped him win the early parliamentary elections in Germany, but now he has to solve difficult tasks:
Popular Category War Date March 6 Connections and armor. “Ukrainian Armored Vehicles” knows how to bypass competitors in the fight for billion-dollar state contracts. Who made it the largest private weapons supplier
- how to restore the country's economic growth;
- how to loosen the “debt brake” for the sake of defense investments;
- what role Germany will play in Europe and whether it will remain an ally of the US.
When Merz forms and leads a new government, he will become Germany's oldest chancellor since Konrad Adenauer .
Support for Ukraine from the new Germany
Ukraine has long been the subject of heated debate in Germany. Society has divided into two camps: some believe that supporting Kyiv brings the threat of war closer to Germany. This view is most actively promoted by the left-wing party Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW). Others are convinced that refusing to support Ukraine and demonstrating weakness in front of Vladimir Putin is even more dangerous.
Friedrich Merz belongs to the second camp. He even visited Kyiv before then-Chancellor Olaf Scholz did. Germany is the second largest supplier of military aid to Ukraine, and Merz strongly supports this policy.
But he could face demands to send German troops to Ukraine as part of a deterrence mission or peacekeeping operation, The Guardian reports, a question Scholz called “absolutely premature” during his tenure.
Merz has repeatedly said that Germany should support Ukraine. He advocates increasing military aid to Ukraine and even supports the transfer of Taurus long-range missiles, which Scholz's government blocked. “We cannot afford a policy of appeasement,” Merz declared during the election campaign.
“Merz is signaling that the fundamental orientation of Germany after World War II will change under his leadership,” says Mujtaba Rahman, managing director of Europe at EurasiaGroup. “Merz seems to have recognized the threat that Trump poses.”
This is good news for Ukraine, which has been under pressure from the White House for the past two weeks. Even better news is that the likely coalition that Merz will form has a good chance of adopting a tougher policy of supporting Ukraine and strengthening European security than Germany has managed in recent years, writes Politico.
However, Merz's commitment to supporting Ukraine may face serious challenges.
- Financial constraints : Due to debt, his government may not have enough funds to increase military aid.
- Political risks : The far-right AfD, which advocates rapprochement with Russia, has received record support and could pressure the government to cut aid to Ukraine.
- Shifting strategic focus . If Merz implements his strategy of “European independence from the US,” it could change the format of aid to Ukraine. Perhaps Germany will cooperate more actively with France and the UK.
Europe must prepare not only to defend Ukraine, but also to defend itself from two threats – Putin and Trump, writes Politico.
Germany without the US: Merz's strategy
“My priority is to strengthen Europe so that step by step we can achieve true independence from the United States,” Merz said after his party’s victory. He also questioned the future of NATO in its current format and suggested that the Alliance could undergo a transformation in the near future.
Merz's statements reflect a deeper crisis in relations between Europe and the United States. The Donald Trump administration has demonstrated indifference to Europe and Ukraine, and US Vice President J.D. Vance has openly met with the leader of the far-right AfD, Alice Weidel, writes Politico.
This forces Germany to prepare for a new reality: if the US no longer guarantees Europe's security, it must defend itself.