The Brief – A more dangerous conflict

A more dangerous conflict for the EU is one that threatens to divide our Union. Unlike Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, which has largely kept the 27 member states on the same page, the Middle East conflict is far more polarising.

There is hardly anything worse than a divided nation. We saw it in the UK with Brexit, and we see it now, for the second time, in the US, where Trumpism is badly dividing society.

The unfolding conflict in the Middle East, which started with the atrocities committed on 7 October, led to wars and horrendous destructions in Gaza and southern Lebanon antagonises societies across the EU and impacted national politics, which have greatly differed.

The divisions came to the fore immediately. When European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen visited Israel days after the 7 October attack, she was accused of having an unacceptable level of bias even by her staff.

Meanwhile, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borell expressed opposition to Israel’s military campaign and actively pushed for a two-state solution. Israel, in return, accused Borrell of anti-Semitism, a now default accusation when Netanyahu’s policies are questioned abroad.

There are also divisions among member states. Czechia is considered one of the staunchest supporters of Israel within the EU, a stance consistently showcased in international forums such as the United Nations. Czechia, at all times, votes in line with Israeli interests, most recently against the humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza.

Conversely, Spain has been one of the leading voices in supporting the recognition of a Palestinian state within the EU. The country recognised Palestine as an independent country on 28 May 2024. Currently, 14 EU countries recognise Palestine, including Malta, Cyprus, and former communist countries that did so for ideological reasons before 1989.

The EU also disagrees on how to deal with allegations of war crimes.

Belgian Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib, commentating about international arrest warrants against Israel, posted on X that “crimes committed in Gaza must be prosecuted at the highest level, regardless of the perpetrators.”

By contrast, the German government released a statement arguing that the “simultaneous application for arrest warrants against the Hamas leaders on the one hand and the two Israeli officials on the other hand, has created the inaccurate impression that they are being equated.”

Also, internally, countries are divided concerning the Palestine issue, as the June European elections have shown.

In France, left-leaning contenders, from the Communists to the social democrats, were clearly in favour of recognising an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel – the so-called ‘two-state solution’.

In contrast, centrist, right-leaning, and far-right contenders all agreed it is too soon to move forward on this issue, which they said would only benefit the terrorist Hamas organisation.

French President Emmanuel Macron called for a halt on arms deliveries to Israel for use in Gaza last week, prompting strong words from Netanyahu but also sparking a heated internal debate that is far from over.

A recent publication by Carnegie Endowment shows that well-known commentators across the EU are also divided on whether the block should recognise Palestine.

The phenomenon of Islamo-leftism is finding fertile ground in EU countries with sizeable Muslim populations, such as France and Belgium, but also at the global scale.

Divisions are likely to deepen as the Gaza war can now be called a Middle East war, as it has extended to southern Lebanon. The objective, however, and the extent of Israel’s war aims are not entirely clear. UN personnel coming under Israeli fire have put EU countries under the test of what their reaction vis-à-vis Israel should be.

One concern is the risk of further spillover, but another is the possibility the campaign against Hezbollah could have the consequence of flattening vast territories in Lebanon, similar to the way most of the Gaza Strip has been turned into ruins. Netanyahu is obviously beyond anyone’s control as the US plans for de-escalation have miserably failed. His decisions negatively impact the campaign of Kamala Harris, as developments make it plain to see that she is part of an obviously powerless US administration. Against this background, if the Middle East war divides the EU, it is probably the least of Netanyahu’s worries. But it should be the worry of EU leaders.

In any case, the EU position will be expressed in 10 paragraphs of the draft EU Council Conclusions at the upcoming EU summit of 17-18 October.

But maybe an 11th paragraph is missing. At a time when the EU is resetting its institutions, the European Council should express its strong determination to avoid divisions among member states and within societies. Such divisions are not only self-inflicted harm, they also serve the interests of other geopolitical players.

The Roundup

EU national leaders will debate accelerating the implementation of new migration laws at a European Council summit in Brussels on Thursday and Friday (17 and 18 October).

With Israel intensifying its campaign on Lebanon over the weekend, Europeans are increasingly worried about their participation in the UN’s peacekeeping mission to the area currently under attack.

Britain’s Foreign Secretary David Lammy will attend talks with EU counterparts for the first time in two years on Monday (14 October) as London looks to “reset” relations with the bloc after Brexit.

While Belgium has struggled to form a government following the 9 June parliamentary elections, municipal elections on Sunday (13 October) put Bart de Wever, leader of the New Flemish Alliance (N-VA), in a strong position to be the next prime minister.

The European Commission is considering a mega-fund for research and innovation (R&I), but critical stakeholders say the loss of autonomy for individual funding projects is the opposite of what is needed.

While striving for an ambitious global plastics treaty, the EU faces strong opposition from non-EU countries and will seek a flexible negotiating position at the Environment Council on Monday (14 October) to facilitate a final global agreement in November.

Iceland’s Prime Minister Bjarni Benediktsson announced the dissolution of the current coalition government at an emergency press conference on Sunday, adding that elections would be held at the end of November.

Look out for

The Hungarian Presidency of the Council of the EU will organise a conference in Budapest, Hungary, on “Strategic partnerships and cooperation in educational system”
The European Economic and Social Committee (EESC) organises in Brussels, Belgium, an online debate “The role of circular economy and bioeconomy in supporting sustainable agri-food systems to promote sustainable rural/urban development in the EU”
The European Economic and Social Committee (EESC) is organising in Brussels, Belgium a public hearing in hybrid format “Disability Inclusive Disaster Risk Reduction Responses”
The Committee of the Regions (CoR), is organising in Brussels, Belgium, an online conference “Climate rights as a new way to respond to the climate crisis”
CEPS organises in Brussels, Belgium a conference in hybrid format “The fallout from CrowdStrike: managing systemic risks in future EU cyber security policy”
Brugel organises in Brussels, Belgium a hybrid conference “Unlocking trillions of climate finance at COP29: A new quantified goal of climate finance”
The Royal Higher Institute of Defence organises in Brussels, Belgium a workshop “Forging the future BE-US joint effort in science for a safer world”
FEPs organise in Brussels, Belgium an online expert meeting “Feminist Foreign Policy Progressive Voices Collective meeting”
Chatham House organises on the internet an online conference on “Funding Ukraine’s recovery”
Ministers meet for the EU’s General Affairs Council in Luxembourg.
The second accession conference with Albania takes place in Luxembourg.
Transport, Telecommunications and Energy Council (Energy) takes place in Luxembourg.
European Commissioner Jutta Urpilainen visits Senegal.
EU-Gulf Cooperation ministerial meeting takes place in Brussels, Belgium.
European Commissioner Helena Dalli gives the opening keynote speech at the G7 Inclusion and Disability in Umbria, Italy.