Harris Struggles to Win Over Latinos, While Trump Holds His Grip, Poll Shows

Latino voters said they were open to Donald J. Trump’s immigration policies and hungry for change. Many remain undecided.

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Presidential support among Hispanic voters

Vote shares and victory margins for 2016 and 2020 are averages of the following: estimates from studies of validated voters by the Pew Research Center, post-election assessments by Catalist and exit polls by the National Election Pool. Margins are calculated using unrounded vote shares.

By June Kim

By Jennifer MedinaRuth Igielnik and Jazmine Ulloa

Oct. 13, 2024, 5:03 a.m. ET

Vice President Kamala Harris’s support among Hispanic voters is in dangerously low territory for Democrats, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll, while her rival, former President Donald J. Trump, has maintained his strength with the fast-growing group poised to play a key role in deciding control of the White House.

The survey of the likely Latino electorate across the country found Ms. Harris underperforming the last three Democratic candidates for the White House, and vulnerable on a slate of top issues, including the economy, immigration and crime.

Mr. Trump, who shocked Democrats four years ago with his appeal to Latinos, particularly men, has only tightened his grip — even as he closes his campaign with a sharply anti-immigrant message.

The poll found that those escalating attacks on immigrants had not driven Latino voters to Ms. Harris. Two-thirds of those surveyed said they believed Mr. Trump was not referring to people like them when he spoke about immigrants. (Half of foreign-born Hispanic voters said the same.)

The New York Times/Siena College Poll

Sept. 29 to Oct. 6

Which of the following comes closer to your view when Donald Trump talks about problems with immigration?

Hispanic respondents born in the United States

I feel like he is talking about me 30% I do not feel like he is talking about me 67%

Hispanic respondents born in another country

I feel like he is talking about me 43% I do not feel like he is talking about me 51%

Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 902 Hispanic likely voters nationwide conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6.

By June Kim

The findings highlight Latinos’ status as decisive swing voters in presidential politics. The last Democrat to fall below 60 percent with Latino voters was John Kerry, the losing nominee in 2004. Over a decade ago, roughly 70 percent of Latino voters backed President Barack Obama’s re-election. Since then, Mr. Trump has eroded that support.

The New York Times/Siena College Poll

Sept. 29 to Oct. 6

Harris

Trump

All Hispanic voters 56% 37% HISPANIC VOTERS BY Gender Men 48% 45% Women 62% 31% HISPANIC VOTERS BY Age Under 45 52% 42% 45+ 60% 33% HISPANIC VOTERS BY Education College 62% 35% No college 54% 38%

The unlabeled segment refers to the share of voters who did not respond or who said they didn’t know.

Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 902 Hispanic likely voters nationwide conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6.

By June Kim

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Source: nytimes.com