The latest Times/Inquirer/Siena polls found Donald Trump with a six-point advantage in Arizona, and Kamala Harris with a four-point lead in Pennsylvania.
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The New York Times/Siena College Poll
Oct. 7 to 10
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?
Arizona
Pennsylvania
Among likely voters. Shaded areas represent margins of error.
Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 808 voters in Arizona and 857 voters in Pennsylvania conducted from Oct. 7 to 10.
By Lily Boyce and June Kim
By Michael C. Bender and Ruth Igielnik
Oct. 12, 2024, 5:04 a.m. ET
Two of the nation’s most-contested battleground states — Pennsylvania and Arizona — illustrate the difficulties each campaign faces in gaining a clear advantage in the final stretch of the 2024 race, with Kamala Harris maintaining a narrow lead in Pennsylvania but Donald J. Trump continuing to hold an advantage in Arizona, according to a new pair of New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls.
The polls, from two states separated by more than 2,000 miles, show the challenge confronting both campaigns as they try to make their closing pitches to a diverse set of voters who have, at times, competing priorities.
In both Arizona and Pennsylvania, Ms. Harris has consolidated support among Democrats since replacing President Biden as the party’s nominee. But Mr. Trump’s strength remains the economy, the issue primarily responsible for his political potency across Arizona and other battleground states this year.
In Pennsylvania, Ms. Harris’s polling lead has been steady, though the state remains tight. Her advantage, 50 percent to 47 percent, falls inside the margin of error. But this was the third Times/Siena survey in two months showing support for Ms. Harris from at least half of the state. (Her lead in the poll was four percentage points when calculated using unrounded figures.)
Fueling Ms. Harris in the state is her commanding lead of nearly 20 percentage points when it comes to handling abortion, her single best issue across battleground states and the second most important concern for Pennsylvania voters.
How the polls compare
| Ariz. | Pa. | |
|---|---|---|
| Times/Siena
Likely voters, Oct. 7-10 |
Trump +6 | Harris +4 |
| Polling average As of 5 a.m. Oct. 12 voters, As of 5 a.m. Oct. 12 |
Trump +2 | Harris +1 |
| Wall Street Journal/Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/GBAO
Registered voters, Sept. 28-Oct. 8 |
Harris +2 | Trump +1 |
| Emerson College/The Hill
Likely voters, Oct. 5-8 |
Trump +2 | Trump +1 |
| AARP/Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research
Likely voters, Sept. 24-Oct. 1 |
Trump +2 | No poll |
| Quinnipiac University
Likely voters, Oct. 3-7 |
No poll | Harris +2 |
| National Research/Democracy Defense Project, Echo Canyon Consulting
Likely voters, Sept. 25-29 |
Harris +1 | No poll |
| Cook Political Report/Benenson Strategy Group/GS Strategy Group
Likely voters, Sept. 19-25 |
Harris +2 | Harris +1 |
| Fox News/Beacon & Shaw
Likely voters, Sept. 20-24 |
Trump +3 | Even |
Notes: Margins are calculated using unrounded vote shares when available. The Times’s polling average is as of 5 a.m. Eastern on Oct. 12.
By Lily Boyce and June Kim
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Source: nytimes.com
