It’s Crunchtime for Kari Lake in Arizona’s Senate Race

The Republican firebrand trails in the polls and faces a large financial disadvantage. Wednesday night’s debate may be her last big chance to land a blow against her Democratic opponent.

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Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for Senate in Arizona, at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in July.

Chatting with a Republican canvasser who knocked on her door in Mesa, Ariz., last week, Beth Waters said she was firmly in former President Donald J. Trump’s camp this November.

The cost of living, the conflicts overseas and the border crisis made it a clear decision, said Ms. Waters, an art teacher and a self-described political independent.

Surely, then, she would also be voting for Kari Lake, the close Trump ally running for the Senate against Representative Ruben Gallego, a Democrat?

She paused. “I don’t dislike Ruben, and I don’t dislike Kari,” Ms. Waters, 51, said. “There are some things that I’ve heard from her that I’m not 100 percent onboard with, so I’m just undecided at this point.”

That is the conundrum facing Ms. Lake as she enters the closing stretch of her bid to succeed Senator Kyrsten Sinema, the retiring Democrat turned independent, and help Republicans regain control of the chamber. Even as polls show Mr. Trump with a lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona, Ms. Lake has consistently trailed Mr. Gallego. A New York Times poll from mid-September found Mr. Trump leading by five percentage points but Ms. Lake trailing by six points — hampered in part by split-ticket voters backing Mr. Trump and Mr. Gallego.

ImageSupporters of Ms. Lake during a campaign event in Cave Creek, Ariz., in March. A New York Times poll from mid-September found Ms. Lake trailing Representative Ruben Gallego by six points.Credit…Rebecca Noble for The New York Times

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