A national Times/Siena poll found Kamala Harris with a slim lead over Donald J. Trump. Voters were more likely to see her, not Mr. Trump, as a break from the status quo.
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The New York Times/Siena College Poll
Sept. 29 to Oct. 6
If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?
Kamala Harris
Donald Trump
Among likely voters. Shaded areas represent the margin of error.
The margin of error is plus or minus 2.4 points.
Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 3,385 voters nationwide conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6.
By Lily Boyce and June Kim
By Adam NagourneyRuth Igielnik and Camille Baker
Oct. 8, 2024Updated 7:08 a.m. ET
Voters are now more likely to credit Vice President Kamala Harris than Donald J. Trump with representing change and caring about people like them, as Ms. Harris takes a slim lead nationally in the race for the White House, according to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll.
The finding is the first time Ms. Harris has led Mr. Trump in the Times/Siena poll since July, when President Biden dropped out of the race and Democrats rallied behind Ms. Harris as his replacement. It comes as the contest moves into its final month, and surveys from the battleground states find the race to be one of the closest in modern history.
While the Times/Siena poll shows some solid advantages for Mr. Trump, the results suggest Ms. Harris is making gains, if small ones, on questions about temperament, trust and change that can be critical in a presidential race.
The poll, conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6 among 3,385 likely voters, found that Ms. Harris led Mr. Trump, the Republican, by 49 percent to 46 percent, a slight lead that is within the poll’s margin of error.
[Times/Siena polls also found Trump leading in Texas and up by a wide margin in Florida. The Florida poll helps clarify what’s happening in the race, Nate Cohn writes.]
Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris were even, at 47 percent each, in a mid-September Times/Siena poll, after the two candidates met in their first — and probably only — presidential debate.
How the Times/Siena poll compares
| Harris | Trump | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Times/Siena
Likely voters Sept. 29-Oct. 6 |
49% | 46% | Harris +4 |
| Polling average
voters As of 5 a.m. Oct. 8 |
49% | 46% | Harris +3 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research
Likely voters Sept. 23-Oct. 1 |
49% | 44% | Harris +5 |
| Marist College
Likely voters Sept. 27-Oct. 1 |
50% | 48% | Harris +2 |
| Emerson College
Likely voters Sept. 29-Oct. 1 |
50% | 49% | Harris +2 |
Notes: Margins are calculated using unrounded vote shares when available. The Times’s polling average is as of 5 a.m. Eastern on Oct. 8.
By Lily Boyce and June Kim
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Source: nytimes.com
