Harris and Trump Are Neck and Neck in Michigan and Wisconsin, Polls Find

The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump has tightened in two of the Northern battlegrounds, New York Times/Siena College polls found.

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The New York Times/Siena College Poll

Sept. 21 to 26

If the 2024 presidential election were held today, who would you vote for if the candidates were Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?

Wisconsin

Michigan

Ohio

Nebraska’s 2nd District

Among likely voters. Shaded areas represent margins of error.

Based on New York Times/Siena College polls of 680 voters in Wisconsin, 688 voters in Michigan, 687 voters in Ohio conducted from Sept. 21 to 26 and 680 voters in Nebraska’s Second District conducted from Sept. 24 to 26.

By Lily Boyce and June Kim

By Reid J. EpsteinRuth Igielnik and Camille Baker

Reid J. Epstein and Ruth Igielnik reported from Washington, and Camille Baker from New York.

Sept. 28, 2024, 5:02 a.m. ET

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald J. Trump are in an even tighter race in the battlegrounds of Michigan and Wisconsin than just seven weeks ago, according to new polling from The New York Times and Siena College.

Ms. Harris’s advantage from early August has been chiseled away slightly by Mr. Trump’s enduring strength on economic issues, the polls found, a potentially troubling development for the vice president given that the economy remains the most important issue driving voters.

With less than 40 days until Election Day, the race is essentially tied in Michigan, with Ms. Harris receiving 48 percent support among likely voters and Mr. Trump garnering 47 percent — well within the poll’s margin of error. In Wisconsin, a state where polls have a history of overstating support for Democrats, Ms. Harris holds 49 percent to Mr. Trump’s 47 percent.

The polls also found that Ms. Harris had a lead of nine percentage points over Mr. Trump in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, whose lone electoral vote could be decisive in the Electoral College. In one possible scenario, the district could give Ms. Harris exactly the 270 electoral votes she would need to win the election if she carried Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Mr. Trump captured the Sun Belt battlegrounds, where Times/Siena polls show he is ahead.

[We’ve had a lot of close elections in recent memory, but in none of them were the polls so close, Nate Cohn writes.]

The Times and Siena College also tested the presidential race in Ohio, which is not considered a battleground for the White House but has one of the country’s most competitive Senate races. Mr. Trump leads by six points in Ohio, while Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, is ahead of his Republican opponent, Bernie Moreno, by four points.

How the polls compare

	Ohio	Wis.	Mich.
Times/Siena Likely voters, Sept. 21-26	Trump +6	Harris +2	Harris +1
Polling average As of 5 a.m. Sept. 28 voters, As of 5 a.m. Sept. 28	Trump +8	Harris +2	Harris +2
Suffolk University/USA Today Likely voters, Sept. 16-19	No poll	No poll	Harris +2
University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov Likely voters, Sept. 11-19	No poll	No poll	Harris +5
Emerson College/The Hill Likely voters, Sept. 15-18	No poll	Trump +2	Harris +1
Marist College Likely voters, Sept. 12-17	No poll	Harris +1	Harris +5
Quinnipiac University Likely voters, Sept. 12-16	No poll	Harris +1	Harris +5
MassINC Polling Group Likely voters, Sept. 12-18	No poll	Harris +7	No poll

Notes: Margins are calculated using unrounded vote shares when available. The Times’s polling average is as of 5 a.m. Eastern on Sept. 28.

By Lily Boyce and June Kim

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