U.S. Officials Say Russia Is Unlikely to Take Much More Ukrainian Territory

Russian forces continue to inflict pain, but NATO leaders gathering in Washington can say that their efforts to strengthen Ukraine are working.

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Installing a trench line in eastern Ukraine last month. Russia’s incremental advances have been slowed by the Ukrainians’ hardened lines in recent months.

Russia is unlikely to make significant territorial gains in Ukraine in the coming months as its poorly trained forces struggle to break through Ukrainian defenses that are now reinforced with Western munitions, U.S. officials say.

Through the spring and early summer, Russian troops tried to take territory outside the city of Kharkiv and renew a push in eastern Ukraine, to capitalize on their seizure of Avdiivka. Russia has suffered thousands of casualties in the drive while gaining little new territory.

Russia’s problems represent a significant change in the dynamic of the war, which had favored Moscow in recent months. Russian forces continue to inflict pain, but their incremental advances have been slowed by the Ukrainians’ hardened lines.

The months ahead will not be easy for Ukraine. But allied leaders gathering in Washington this week for the 75th anniversary of the founding of North Atlantic Treaty Organization can legitimately argue that their efforts to strengthen Ukraine are working.

“Ukrainian forces are stretched thin and face difficult months of fighting ahead, but a major Russian breakthrough is now unlikely,” said Michael Kofman, a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who recently visited Ukraine.

Leaders at the summit are expected to promise new funding for Ukraine, announce plans for the alliance to coordinate weapons delivery and strengthen a promise to Kyiv that it will, eventually, become a full ally.

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