How Biden’s Struggles Are Factoring Into Trump’s V.P. Selection

The former president’s reluctance to name a running mate has, in recent days, been partly to avoid shifting the focus away from President Biden amid fallout from the debate.

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Former President Donald J. Trump speaks at a rally in Chesapeake, Va., last week. There have been no formal plans for a running mate announcement to this point, but the countdown has begun.

Uncertainty over whether President Biden will continue seeking re-election, despite his pledges to stay in the race, has sharpened the focus on Donald J. Trump’s political calculations for choosing his Republican running mate.

Some people close to the former president said privately they now want him to give more consideration to a young contender or to a person of color, a move that could counter the possibility that someone like Kamala Harris, the first woman and first woman of color to serve as vice president, could replace Mr. Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket.

Such a scenario could help at least a couple of Mr. Trump’s top contenders: Senator J.D. Vance of Ohio, who is the second-youngest member of the Senate, and Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, whose Cuban American heritage is central to his political biography.

But among those in Mr. Trump’s circle who believe that Mr. Biden’s disastrous debate performance makes a Republican victory more likely in November, there’s another train of thought: that Gov. Doug Burgum of North Dakota is now a stronger option. Mr. Burgum, also one of Mr. Trump’s top contenders, has executive experience from two terms in that office and a long career as a business executive.

Either way, the countdown to Mr. Trump’s announcement has begun. His campaign has already parked an airplane dedicated to the Republican vice-presidential nominee in an undisclosed hangar, awaiting Mr. Trump’s decision, according to one person familiar with the planning.

There is also increasing anticipation for Mr. Trump’s next two rallies.

One is planned on Tuesday at Mr. Trump’s property in Doral, Fla., in Mr. Rubio’s home county, Miami-Dade. Mr. Trump has been urging his team for nearly two years to hold a rally at the Doral property, where, as president, he pushed to host the Group of 7 summit until criticism from fellow Republicans convinced him to hold it elsewhere. Another rally is scheduled next Saturday, July 13, in Butler, Pa., not far from the border with Mr. Vance’s home state of Ohio.

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