The national survey found that more than two thirds of voters said the outcome of Donald J. Trump’s Manhattan criminal case made no difference to their vote.
President Biden has struggled to consolidate support within his party ahead of this fall’s election. Donald J. Trump saw support swell after his felony conviction last month.
President Biden continues to confront deeper doubts among Democrats than former President Donald J. Trump faces among Republicans — even after Mr. Trump was convicted of 34 felony charges last month, according to a new poll by The New York Times and Siena College.
The national survey on the eve of the first presidential debate shows that voters have broad distaste for both candidates but that Mr. Trump has so far better consolidated the support of his own party. Only 72 percent of voters who said they cast a ballot for Mr. Biden four years ago say they approve of the job he is doing as president. And voters overall say they now trust Mr. Trump more on the issues that matter most to them.
[You can find the full results of the polls, including the exact questions that were asked, here. You can see answers to common questions about our polling process here.]
In the first Times/Siena poll since the former president’s trial ended with a guilty verdict on May 30, more than two-thirds of voters said the outcome of his Manhattan criminal case made no difference to their vote. Roughly 90 percent of Republicans still view Mr. Trump favorably.
And among the relatively small slice who said the conviction would make a difference in their vote, Republicans said the outcome would make them likelier to support him than oppose him by a roughly 4-to-1 margin.
At the same time, the poll revealed some vulnerabilities for Mr. Trump because of his conviction, especially among independent voters who could prove decisive in November. Twice as many independents said the conviction made them more likely to oppose Mr. Trump than support him, and a majority of independents also believe he received a fair trial.
How the Times/Siena poll compares to others
| Dates | Biden | Trump | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Times/Siena poll Among likely voters |
June 20–25 | 44% | 48% | Trump +3 |
| Times/Siena poll 1,226 registered voters |
June 20–25 | 42% | 48% | Trump +6 |
| Polling average |
As of June 26 | 45% | 46% | Trump +1 |
| Quinnipiac 1,405 registered voters |
June 20–24 | 45% | 49% | Trump +4 |
| Beacon & Shaw 1,095 registered voters |
June 14–17 | 50% | 48% | Biden +2 |
| Ipsos 903 registered voters |
June 12 | 39% | 41% | Trump +2 |
| Marist 1,184 registered voters |
June 10–12 | 49% | 49% | Even |
Notes: Margins are calculated using unrounded vote shares when available. The Times’s polling average is as of 4:30 p.m. Eastern.
By Lily Boyce
The New York Times/Siena College Poll
June 20 to 25
Do you approve or disapprove of Donald Trump’s being found guilty in the Manhattan hush money trial?
all Strongly/
somewhat approve 46% Have not heard enough 21 Strongly/
somewhat disapprove 30 democrats 85% 13 independents 47% 26 23 republicans 11% 21 66
Did Donald Trump’s conviction make you more likely or less likely to support him?
all More likely 10% Made no difference 68 Don’t know/
did not say Less
likely 19 democrats 65 33 independents 10% 68 20 republicans 20% 74 5
Note: The unlabeled segment refers to the share of voters who did not respond or who said they didn’t know.
Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 1,226 registered voters conducted June 20 to 25, 2024. Question wording has been condensed.
By Lily Boyce
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Source: nytimes.com
