Half of Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s supporters said they were voting chiefly for him, and nearly half said their support was mostly a vote against President Biden or former President Donald J. Trump.
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THE NEW YORK TIMES
THE PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER
SIENA COLLEGE POLL
April 28 to May 9
If the 2024 presidential election
were held today, who would you
vote for if the candidates were:
Biden
R.F.K. Jr.
Other
Trump
Nev.
27%
12%
19%
41%
Pa.
36
10
14
40
Ariz.
33
10
15
42
Ga.
31
9
21
39
Mich.
36
9
18
38
Wis.
38
9
15
38
THE NEW YORK TIMES
THE PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER
SIENA COLLEGE POLL
April 28 to May 9
If the 2024 presidential election were held today,
who would you vote for if the candidates were:
Biden
R.F.K. Jr.
Other
Trump
Nevada
27%
12%
19%
41%
Pennsylvania
36
10
14
40
Arizona
33
10
15
42
Georgia
31
9
21
39
Michigan
36
9
18
38
Wisconsin
38
9
15
38
“Other” includes respondents who declined to answer or who said they would not vote, would vote for other candidates or did not know who they would vote for. Figures may not add up to 100 percent because of rounding.
Based on New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls of registered voters in six battleground states conducted from April 28 to May 9, 2024.
By Molly Cook Escobar
By Shane Goldmacher and Neil Vigdor
May 14, 2024, 5:00 a.m. ET
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is polling stronger than any third-party candidate has in decades, pulling in roughly 10 percent of registered voters across the battleground states as he saps support from both President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump, a new series of polls has found.
The overall results in the Biden versus Trump contest were virtually unchanged when Mr. Kennedy was included in the polls conducted by The New York Times, Siena College and The Philadelphia Inquirer. But beneath the surface of that seeming stability, the surveys revealed how Mr. Kennedy, powered by social media and younger voters, has emerged as an unpredictable X factor in what would otherwise be a 2020 rematch.
With less than six months until the election, the faction of the electorate giving Mr. Kennedy early support exposes some of the vulnerabilities inside the president’s Democratic coalition. Mr. Biden dropped all the way to 33 percent in a five-candidate race, an alarmingly low share of the vote for an incumbent president. The series of polls focused on what are expected to be the most contested states this fall: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Two of the groups that Mr. Kennedy performed strongest with in the surveys — voters under 30 (18 percent support) and Latinos (14 percent) — have traditionally been strong Democratic constituencies, unnerving some party strategists. Mr. Biden is also winning only half of Black voters in the multicandidate race.
Mr. Kennedy is clearly getting a boost from the rise of social media and the ability to communicate his message directly to voters. Among the roughly one in six voters who said they consumed most of their news from social media, Mr. Kennedy was getting 16 percent of the vote, nearly equal to Mr. Biden’s 18 percent.
Among crucial independent voters, Mr. Kennedy was pulling in 16 percent support. But his supporters say they are far less committed to him than backers of Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump, and less likely to vote at all.
Are you mostly voting for Robert F.
Kennedy Jr. or against the other
candidates in the race?
Among respondents who said they
would vote for Kennedy
Against
the other
candidates
Don’t know/
declined
to say
For R.F.K. Jr.
54%
41%
5%
Ga.
53
35
12
Nev.
53
47
0
Mich.
51
44
5
Wis.
48
46
6
Ariz.
39
53
8
Pa.
Are you mostly voting for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
or against the other candidates in the race?
Among respondents who said they would vote for Kennedy
Against the
other candidates
Don’t know/
declined to say
For R.F.K. Jr.
Georgia
54%
41%
5%
Nevada
53
35
12
Michigan
53
47
0
Wisconsin
51
44
5
Arizona
48
46
6
Pennsylvania
39
53
8
Figures may not add up to 100 percent because of rounding.
Based on New York Times/Philadelphia Inquirer/Siena College polls of registered voters in six battleground states conducted from April 28 to May 9, 2024.
By Molly Cook Escobar
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Source: nytimes.com
