The Brief – The Gabriel riddle

Another EU summit starts today, and as usual, I will spend two days in a newsroom with colleagues from most EU countries, many of whom will ask me what is happening in Bulgaria.

The country I know best is in a deep political crisis, with a fifth consecutive snap election since July 2021 on the horizon.

While the summit is mostly dedicated to Ukraine, Bulgaria is a frontline country. Its Black Sea coast is of great strategic importance, and its political parties are divided along the geopolitical line regarding whether to help Ukraine.

So, the question is relevant but difficult to answer.

Six months ago, after a snap election and tough government-forming talks, an unlikely coalition emerged, composed of ‘We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria’ (PP-DB) and Boyko Borissov’s conservative GERB party.

GERB won the most seats but could not govern on its own or find junior partners, and the cabinet was eventually agreed under the mandate of PP-DB.

There was a condition: After six months, Prime Minister Nikolay Denkov, representing PP-DB, will be replaced by former European commissioner Mariya Gabriel, representing GERB.

It must be explained here that PP-DB and GERB are the strangest bedfellows and putting them together is like mixing oil with water.

PP-DB is a relatively new political party, born during the protests against Borissov in 2020. It’s extremely strange for a party created on an anti-Borissov ticket to be in coalition with him.

The excuse was the geopolitical situation. If there is one thing that unites PP-DB and GERB, it is that both parties declare themselves as pro-NATO and in favour of aiding Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression.

The unholy coalition of GERB and PP-DB enjoys the support of another pro-EU party, the Turkish minority party DPS, which is not a formal part of the coalition.

But the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) is against providing any assistance to Ukraine, just like the other parties in parliament: the pro-Russian nationalists of Vazrazhdane and the populists “There is such a people” of showman Slavi Trifonov.

Still, the coalition of PP-DB and GERB was expected to survive, for the sake of geopolitics and despite the disappointment of the PP-DB voters, who consider Borissov the mastermind of deeply entrenched corruption in Bulgaria.

But something unusual happened on Tuesday (19 March). Mariya Gabriel handed over to President Rumen Radev a list of the members of her future cabinet, for which PP-DB had not consented.

This infuriated PP-DB politicians, and one of them, Asen Vassilev, until now the finance minister, called Gabriel “the beautiful face of the mafia”.

Other PP-DB politicians didn’t go that far, but some said Gabriel cannot be prime minister.

The decision is now with the Bulgarian parliament, which should vote for the Gabriel cabinet, but without the PP-DB votes, the attempt would fail.

In the meantime, Borissov turned the situation to his advantage by saying government talks could continue on condition that PP-DB present their formal apologies to Gabriel. Vassilev said he could apologise to Gabriel as a woman but was not going to apologise to her as a candidate for prime minister.

What will happen is impossible to predict.

At the Brussels summit, Bulgaria is represented by Prime Minister Denkov, possibly the most moderate politician in the PP-DB. Most of the questions he will receive will probably be about the Bulgarian crisis and not EU affairs.

It is also likely that Denkov’s peers in the EU and the heads of EU institutions will tell him that Brussels wants the Bulgarian crisis to be solved and the country to have a stable government.

But they will be preaching to the converted, as Denkov doesn’t lack a sense of responsibility.

What he lacks, however, is political clout. Upon even casual observation, it is clear that the alpha male in PP-DB is Kiril Petkov, the former prime minister, and Denkov is his subordinate.

Another alpha male is Borissov. He is suspected of playing his own game and pulling strings to deny Gabriel the chance to become prime minister, even though she is from his party.

Reportedly, Borissov is jealous of her and fears that after her mandate, she will outshine him as the face of GERB.

A snap election is likely to mark eroded support for PP-DB, and Turkish minority DPS may well emerge as a second force. This could result in a GERB-DPS coalition.

An early election is, therefore, hardly in PP-DB’s interest.

But logic doesn’t reign supreme in Bulgarian politics, the motivation of various players is not always clear, and their hidden dependencies may come into play.

This is what I will be telling my colleagues. Bulgarians are sick and tired of going to the polls once or twice a year, and many simply consider that no political force merits their vote.

The Roundup

EU leaders are looking at a serious debate on Thursday about how to fund the ramp-up of the bloc’s defence industry to answer Ukraine’s needs and match the Europeans’ ambition to become an independent security player.

Greenpeace activists disrupted the one-day Nuclear Energy Summit in Brussels on Thursday, attended by some 40 delegations from across the world to explore the possibilities of collaborations in nuclear power.

The European Court of Justice (ECJ) ruled on Thursday that a 2019 EU regulation obliging EU citizens to give their fingerprints for national identification cards was founded on the wrong legal basis, declaring the EU law entirely invalid.

The European Commission’s plan to withdraw the bloc from the Energy Charter Treaty while allowing member states the right to remain if they choose was presented to Parliament on Thursday.

Real wages in the EU declined for the second successive year in 2023 as nominal salary increases failed to keep up with persistent inflation, according to a study published on Thursday (21 March) by Europe’s largest trade union organisation.

European power industry association Eurelectric seeks longer-term planning and a reform of grid tariff rules to finance an anticipated €584 billion investment into the continent’s electricity grids by 2030.

The role of the Body of European Regulators for Electronic Communications needs to change, given the expanding regulatory scope of its members in broader ecosystems, Kamila Kloc, the European Commission’s director in charge of the digital decade and connectivity, told Euractiv in an interview.

The EU fisheries sector must regain its competitiveness and protect itself from unfair competition from third countries, a report presented at the European Parliament on Wednesday recommended.

In recent days, Germany has increased pressure to add to the EU summit conclusions a “positive” message for the future of EU-Turkey relations, something that Cyprus has not taken well, Euractiv has learnt.

EU leaders are set to give the political green light to open accession talks with Bosnia and Herzegovina on Thursday, but the outcome still hangs in the balance as several member states aim to tie the decision to progress on Ukraine and Moldova.

Last but not least, don’t miss this week’s EU Elections Decoded: EU parties competing with national politics as campaign kicks off

Look out for…

Europan Council summit on Thursday-Friday.
Euro summit on Friday.
Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra participates in Copenhagen Climate Ministerial on Friday.

Views are the author’s

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Alice Taylor]