The EU centre-right and the liberals – together with the socialists – have been broadly expected to form a pro-EU coalition in the European Parliament after the elections in June. However, it appears that there is trouble in paradise.
In the first three sentences of the draft manifesto of ALDE, part of the liberal-centrist Renew Group, the EU liberals attacked what they described as an “EPP-led” Commission for “neglecting” the EU single market under the Presidency of Ursula von der Leyen.
And when von der Leyen announced her bid for a second term, the radio silence in Paris was resounding. No public comment, no reaction from the Elysée or President Emmanuel Macron himself.
But, after von der Leyen’s election at the European People’s Party (EPP) congress in Bucharest this week, French Commissioner Thierry Breton openly questioned if she had the full support of the EPP.
“The real question now: Is it possible to (re)entrust the management of Europe to the EPP for five more years, or 25 years in a row? The EPP itself does not seem to believe in its candidate,” Breton posted on X.
Earlier today, EPP Secretary General Thanasis Bakolas lashed out at Breton, saying that EU liberals have “no relevance”.
“I know that things are particularly difficult in France for Renaissance, as they are squeezed by the extremes they helped to grow by weakening the traditional centre-left and the centre-right,” Bakolas said.
It’s not the first time the EPP has blamed Macron for France’s far-right slide, which is currently seeing Marine Le Pen’s party leading the polls.
In an interview with Euractiv earlier this week, Bakolas said there are responsibilities for the situation in France that “have not been assumed” yet, indirectly pointing the finger at Macron.
In the meantime, the EU liberals seem to be struggling to find their lead candidate.
Frontrunner Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas rejected the job, while Luxembourg’s Foreign Minister Xavier Bettel is not interested either.
An EPP source told Euractiv that several high-ranking EPP officials gathered during the Bucharest congress to wonder jointly, with more than a little irony, “why Kallas seemed reluctant to take the job”.
This escalation between the EPP and ALDE was not unexpected, especially after the EU centre-right said it would seek a “centrist” approach in the next institutional cycle, directly encroaching on the liberals’ political space.
Either both camps are, indeed, trying to fish for votes from the same pool – or Macron has withdrawn to Paris intending to mastermind an underhanded manoeuvre related to the distribution of EU top jobs, as he did in 2019.
The EPP – estimated to be the single strongest party in the next elections – has said it wants to form a pro-EU coalition together with the socialists and the liberals.
Altogether, according to the latest forecasts, they could gather 403 seats in the next 720-member parliament, and therefore, form a majority.
But who will get the top jobs seems to be a thorny issue. So does the distribution of important portfolios in the new Commission, with everyone coveting the top files related to the Green Deal.
For now, Macron sits and waits, aware that EU liberals will be kingmakers for the new pro-EU coalition. One might be forgiven for thinking they could even resort to blackmailing the EPP to secure a good top job for liberals.
But blackmail that threatens the formation of a pro-EU coalition could backfire and force the EPP to seek allies on the right – not a wild stretch of the imagination, as they already stated they would be open to collaborating with the “healthy elements” of that side of the aisle.
The liberal blackmail would also contradict Macron’s narrative domestically.
The French president has been calling on citizens for years to vote for the centre to avoid having the extremes in power. He can hardly afford to say at the EU level: “Give me what I want, otherwise a pro-EU coalition is at stake.”
Asked if the EPP believes Macron plans to put forward another last-minute candidate for the Commission presidency post after the EU elections, an EPP source told Euractiv that Macron “played the same game in 2019”.
However, the source added a veiled warning: “The mass congress in Bucharest was a projection of power […] I hope Macron realised it.”
Having a power game rhetoric before the EU elections is not unusual.
The difference is that this bickering should not create open wounds post-election, as the far right will this time be genuinely ready to show its teeth. For now, they are biding their time.
The Roundup
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Friday she expected a maritime aid corridor to start operating between Cyprus and Gaza this weekend, taking desperately needed aid to besieged Palestinians.
With Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán due to met former US president Donald Trump in Florida on Friday, a liberal Hungarian opposition MEP voiced fears that this does not bode well for the outcome of the war in Ukraine and NATO in general.
As the EU moves to extend trade liberalisation with Kyiv, Ukraine’s trade representative Taras Kachka told Euractiv that talks with Warsaw will soon lead to safeguard measures to protect Polish farmers from the influx of Ukrainian agricultural imports.
Twenty-two European countries wrote to the Commission calling for immediate initiatives to respond to the agricultural crisis, with the bloc’s executive confirming its intention to table measures next week.
As EU ambassadors were due to meet on Friday (8 March) to try to agree again a provisional deal on the platform work directive, France circulated a set of changes it wants to make to the text, throwing another spanner in the works for the ill-starred file.
To understand the obstacles women face when participating in politics, national authorities need to generate more gender-disaggregated data, Policy and Campaign Officer for the European Women’s Lobby, Jéromine Andolfatto, told Euractiv.
The centre-right European People’s Party is eyeing a pro-EU coalition with the socialists and liberals after June’s EU elections, an EPP source told Euractiv, adding that the Greens are not on their radar, while cooperation with some parties on the right who want to distance themselves from extreme rhetoric is not ruled out.
For more policy news, check out this week’s Tech Brief, Agrifood Brief, and Economy Brief.
Look out for…
- Commissioner Ylva Johansson in Madrid, speaks at New Economy Forum on Monday.
- Eurogroup meeting on Monday.
- .Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council on Monday.
Views are the author’s
[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic/Alice Taylor]
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Source: euractiv.com
