Portugal’s right-wing likely to win elections but ‘surprises’ possible

A victory for the right-wing bloc in Sunday’s general elections in Portugal is the most likely scenari o, but there is uncertainty whether there will be a need for an agreement with the far-right Chega party, according to two political analysts who spoke to Euractiv’s partner Lusa, adding that there could be surprises ahead.

Portuguese will go to ballots on Sunday (10 March) to decide the political era after socialist António Costa, who has been ruling the country since 2015 and resigned last November amid a high-level corruption probe.

Speaking to Euractiv’s partner Lusa, political analysts Marco Lisi and Adelino Maltês predicted a victory for the Democratic Alliance (DA), a coalition between the PSD (EPP), the CDS-PP (EPP) and the PPM (monarchists), leaving open the possibility of agreements with the IL (liberals) or even Chega (far right ID).

According to projections from Europe Elects, the right-wing bloc DA is estimated to get 31% of the vote, followed by the socialists with 29%. The liberals (IL) stand at 6%, while far-right Chega is expected to score 18%.

“The most predictable thing is that the right-wing bloc will have a majority,” said Lisi, professor and researcher in Political Science at the Portuguese Institute of International Relations at the Nova University of Lisbon.

“We then have to see the internal balance between the various right-wing parties, i.e. whether DA with the Liberal Initiative (IL) eventually manages to get a majority, without Chega being part of the government solution, or whether, having a relative majority, Chega is needed for the future government to have an absolute majority,” he added.

Based on the latest polls, the researcher points to these two scenarios as the most predictable, although they differ in terms of the government’s stability.

The PSD (EPP), a party that has shared power with the Socialists (PS) since the 25 April revolution, would return to power.

“In the first case [DA and IL with an absolute majority], there may be conditions for a government with greater stability, in the second case [DA and IL with a relative majority], it’s more complicated since the leader of the DA has already said that he wouldn’t make a government coalition with the inclusion of Chega and a situation where a right-wing government is viable will always be very provisional,” Lisi said.

Far-right Chega’s role

He added, however, that “there could be surprises”, such as a right-wing majority but with the socialist PS getting more votes than the DA, although this is unlikely given the latest polls.

Surprises are already part of Portuguese political life after the last general election in 2022 when a technical tie in the various polls became an absolute majority for the Socialists.

“There are still many undecided voters, and the balance could change in the final days of the campaign,” warns Lisi.

If the Socialists win more votes, the PS is expected to try to form a government, and the DA will “probably” replace Luís Montenegro in the leadership, leaving it unknown who will succeed him and what strategy he will pursue.

In such a scenario, according to Lisi, the PSD would be in a “very difficult” position and risk being “crushed” by Chega, which would be seen as “the real opposition party” if the Social Democrats made a deal with the PS.

On the other hand, if the PSD makes a deal with Chega, it will be “constantly blackmailed,” and Chega leader André Ventura can play the “trump card” of being the key to the government’s viability.

Maltez, a professor at the University of Lisbon’s Higher Institute of Social and Political Sciences (ISCSP) and a political scientist, believes that the day after the elections will see “what most European democracies have: bargaining governments”.

Adelino Maltez believes that the most likely scenario is in line with the “tradition of the last 50 years of democracy”: “A so-called social-democratic party and a so-called socialist-democratic party make up the vast majority of the Portuguese parliament.”

“If there is any instability, it’s the fault of these two parties who know each other very well and who may have solutions that they don’t necessarily agree on,” he adds.

The university professor emphasises that there is a logic of stability between PS and PSD, who “always agree on the essentials,” and that this “is the great factor of stability in Portuguese democracy.”

As for the possible need for an agreement with Chega to make a right-wing government viable, the researcher believes it may not be necessary, but if it is, the DA “has a very simple solution”:

“Either it admits to paying the PS for stability, or it enters into a solution that is also democratic, and in several countries in Europe, this happens, [which is] parties like Chega entering the arc of governance.”

(Maria João Pereira |Lusa.pt – Edited by Sarantis Michalopoulos | Euractiv.com)